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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 2–6 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 020 2 26
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 123 6 17
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK +6.8
PIT -4.4
SEA -1.3
SJS -1.2
EDM -1.1
NSH -1.1
LAK -1.1
CBJ +0.9
NYI +0.6
DET +0.6
WSH +0.6
OTT +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 9:56 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:41 VGK Colton Sissons (5) Braeden Bowman (17) · wrist xG 0.18 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
5:02 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (31) Kaedan Korczak (11), Braeden Bowman (18) · wrist xG 0.07 0–2 ▶
8:26 PIT Rickard Rakell (13) Bryan Rust (27), Ryan Shea (22) · tip-in xG 0.15 1–2 ▶
9:20 VGK Mitch Marner (19) Pavel Dorofeyev (22) · wrist xG 0.28 1–3 ▶
16:22 PIT Ben Kindel (16) Anthony Mantha (25), Ryan Shea (23) · tip-in xG 0.11 2–3 ▶
3rd Period
4:35 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (32) Mitch Marner (48) · snap xG 0.15 2–4 ▶
6:20 VGK Jack Eichel (24) Ivan Barbashev (28), Shea Theodore (24) · wrist xG 0.07 2–5 ▶
19:01 VGK Brayden McNabb (3)EN Jack Eichel (50) · wrist xG 0.49 2–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 64%Deserve to win36% VGK
PITVGK
2.53Expected goals3.22
2Goals (no shootout)6
1.68Expected goals, 5 on 51.60
64Shot attempts45
42Unblocked attempts31
26Shots on goal17

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
4:35 PIT Goalie Goalie · Silovs −2.3 goals saved
4 goals on 1.68 xG, 13 shots on goal
16:54 PIT Deserve to win Deserve to win · PIT takes the lead, 61–39%
VGK had led since 15:13 of the 1st, by as much as 71%

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Noel Acciari: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:38) Mark Stone: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:48) Jack Eichel: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:33) Colton Sissons: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:45) Pavel Dorofeyev: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:17) Avery Hayes: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:15) Egor Chinakhov: tip-in, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:18) Ville Koivunen: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:28) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:50) Connor Clifton: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:58) Avery Hayes: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:20) Mitch Marner: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:36) Braeden Bowman: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:17) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:22) Bryan Rust: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:05) Braeden Bowman: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 15:13) Tommy Novak: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 15:50) Mitch Marner: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:50) Jack Eichel: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:54) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 17:46) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:13) Ilya Solovyov: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:36) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:07) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:24) Jack Eichel: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:50) Shea Theodore: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:29) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:42) Avery Hayes: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:37) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:55) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:12) Brayden McNabb: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:35) Mitch Marner: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:48) Kris Letang: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:22) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:08) Ville Koivunen: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:32) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 13:46) Ben Kindel: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 13:56) Egor Chinakhov: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:12) Ryan Shea: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:18) Elmer Soderblom: tip-in, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:27) Erik Karlsson: slap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:07) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:24) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:11) Egor Chinakhov: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 5:37) Mitch Marner: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:46) Brayden McNabb: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:56) Rickard Rakell: backhand, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:50) Erik Karlsson: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:00) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:05) Avery Hayes: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 10:16) Avery Hayes: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:32) Kris Letang: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:42) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:45) Kris Letang: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:53) Kris Letang: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:31) Rickard Rakell: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 13:37) Jack Eichel: wrist, 104 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 14:03) Nic Dowd: wrist, 176 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 15:54) Shea Theodore: wrist, 171 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:57) Erik Karlsson: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:26) Rickard Rakell: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:32) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:54) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:15) Jack Eichel: wrist, 169 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 18:40) Avery Hayes: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 19:17) Colton Sissons: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 8:41) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:02) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 8:26) Mitch Marner: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 9:20) Ben Kindel: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 16:22) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, snap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 4:35) Jack Eichel: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:20) Brayden McNabb: GOAL, wrist, 141 ft, xG 0.49 (P3 19:01)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 011 +1 10.01 1122:04
67 Rickard Rakell 101 +1 40.38 1020:48
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 +1 100.42 1020:32
39 Anthony Mantha 011 -2 30.10 1018:08
18 Tommy Novak 000 -3 20.24 0016:43
41 Ville Koivunen 000 -2 20.15 0014:47
52 Noel Acciari 000 -2 20.08 1014:03
81 Ben Kindel 101 0 40.26 0113:52
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 0 20.00 1013:08
19 Connor Dewar 000 -3 20.09 1010:45
46 Blake Lizotte 000 -3 10.00 1210:21
85 Avery Hayes 000 -1 60.42 0109:31
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 000 -3 140.13 0126:26
58 Kris Letang 000 0 50.20 1223:51
6 Ryan Shea 022 +1 20.01 0219:16
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 -2 10.00 1118:42
75 Connor Clifton 000 -2 10.01 1015:06
7 Ilya Solovyov 000 -2 20.02 1112:55
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 16511 .688 1.79 -3.21

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 112 +2 80.80 0119:51
61 Mark Stone 000 +2 20.05 1217:52
93 Mitch Marner 112 +2 60.52 0017:47
48 Tomas Hertl 000 +3 20.16 1217:07
21 Brett Howden 000 0 10.00 5315:59
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 213 +3 40.30 0015:32
49 Ivan Barbashev 011 +2 10.00 3113:47
15 Colton Sissons 101 0 20.19 2312:57
26 Nic Dowd 000 -1 20.30 2012:44
22 Cole Smith 000 -1 00.00 1012:35
42 Braeden Bowman 022 0 30.22 0011:32
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 10.01 4011:11
Defense
3 Brayden McNabb 101 +2 60.55 4223:39
15 Noah Hanifin 000 +1 20.00 1220:43
27 Shea Theodore 011 +2 30.11 0120:14
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 +1 10.00 0118:58
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 +1 00.00 2216:41
6 Kaedan Korczak 011 +1 00.00 1012:51
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 26224 .923 2.53 +0.53

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
5 Ryan Shea D +1.54 +1.10 0.00 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 19:16
67 Rickard Rakell R +1.39 +0.75 +0.25 +0.46 0.00 -0.07 0.00 — 20:48
81 Ben Kindel C +1.37 +0.75 +0.17 +0.49 0.00 -0.05 +0.01 — 13:52
17 Bryan Rust R +1.09 +0.70 +0.01 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 22:04
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.76 0.00 +0.27 +0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:32
25 Elmer Soderblom L +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.62 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:08
85 Avery Hayes R +0.55 0.00 +0.28 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:31
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.53 +0.70 +0.07 -0.38 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 18:08
58 Kris Letang D +0.50 0.00 +0.13 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 23:51
7 Ilya Solovyov D +0.16 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:55
75 Connor Clifton D -0.10 0.00 +0.01 0.00 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 15:06
41 Ville Koivunen R -0.17 0.00 +0.10 -0.40 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:47
18 Tommy Novak C -0.42 0.00 +0.16 -0.56 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:43
19 Connor Dewar C -0.64 0.00 +0.06 -0.69 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 10:45
28 Parker Wotherspoon D -0.70 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 18:42
55 Noel Acciari C -0.72 0.00 +0.05 -0.74 0.00 -0.06 +0.02 — 14:03
65 Erik Karlsson D -0.74 0.00 +0.09 -0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 26:26
46 Blake Lizotte C -0.83 0.00 0.00 -0.90 0.00 -0.03 +0.10 — 10:21
37 Arturs Silovs G -3.21 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.21 53:02

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +2.98 +2.20 +0.19 +0.69 -0.10 0.00 0.00 — 15:32
9 Jack Eichel C +2.46 +1.45 +0.52 +0.37 0.00 +0.09 +0.03 — 19:51
93 Mitch Marner R +1.96 +1.45 +0.34 +0.33 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:47
42 Braeden Bowman R +1.42 +1.25 +0.14 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:32
3 Brayden McNabb D +1.29 +0.75 +0.36 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 23:39
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.18 0.00 +0.11 +0.83 +0.15 +0.07 +0.02 — 17:07
49 Ivan Barbashev L +0.97 +0.70 0.00 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:47
10 Colton Sissons C +0.93 +0.75 +0.12 -0.12 0.00 +0.05 +0.13 — 12:57
27 Shea Theodore D +0.88 +0.55 +0.07 +0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 20:14
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.62 +0.70 0.00 -0.01 -0.05 0.00 -0.02 — 12:51
33 Adin Hill G +0.53 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.53 60:00
61 Mark Stone R +0.45 0.00 +0.03 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:52
21 Brett Howden C +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 — 15:59
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 20:43
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:41
4 Rasmus Andersson D -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 18:58
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.21 0.00 +0.01 -0.23 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:11
62 Nic Dowd C -0.29 0.00 +0.19 -0.62 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 12:44
22 Cole Smith R -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:35

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.