Nashville PredatorsNSH 2–4 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH	0	1	1	2	29
Washington CapitalsWSH	2	1	1	4	30

Playoff odds, %	Change
NSH	-5.1
WSH	+3.7
LAK	+1.1
CBJ	-0.9
EDM	+0.8
NYI	-0.8
SEA	+0.7
ANA	+0.6
UTA	+0.6
SJS	+0.5
VGK	+0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 5, 2026 5:15 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:15	WSH	Tom Wilson (23) Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Jakob Chychrun (25) · snap xG 0.04	0–1 ▶
12:48	WSH	Pierre-Luc Dubois (1)PP Dylan Strome (30), John Carlson (36) · snap xG 0.16	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
8:42	WSH	Jakob Chychrun (20) Unassisted · snap xG 0.05	0–3 ▶
17:40	NSH	Jonathan Marchessault (10) Erik Haula (20), Adam Wilsby (10) · deflected xG 0.13	1–3 ▶
3rd Period
1:17	NSH	Michael McCarron (5) Cole Smith (4), Adam Wilsby (11) · wrist xG 0.07	2–3 ▶
13:11	WSH	Jakob Chychrun (21)PP Dylan Strome (31), Alex Ovechkin (26) · snap xG 0.15	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 68%Deserve to win32% WSH

NSH		WSH
3.66	Expected goals	2.52
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.89	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.93
63	Shot attempts	49
43	Unblocked attempts	41
29	Shots on goal	30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:20	NSH	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.25–0.20 In xG over 10 minutes, 4:20 to 14:20 of the 1st; goals 0–1
2nd Period
12:13	WSH	Goalie	Goalie · Thompson +2.0 goals saved 0 goals on 2.01 xG, 16 shots on goal
12:50	WSH	No shift	No shift · Carlson, 28:06 on the bench No shift after 19:32 of the 1st; 9 shifts (7:03) before that
3rd Period
15:00	WSH	No shift	No shift · Lapierre, 10:28 on the bench No shift after 2:38 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (7:02) before that
16:19	NSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Annunen, down 4–2 With 3:41 left

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
90	Ryan O'Reilly	0	0	0	0	4	0.43	0	1	21:11
56	Erik Haula	0	1	1	0	4	0.35	0	0	18:34
91	Steven Stamkos	0	0	0	0	4	0.44	2	0	18:33
77	Luke Evangelista	0	0	0	0	4	0.18	0	1	18:13
81	Jonathan Marchessault	1	0	1	0	5	0.61	1	0	17:07
9	Filip Forsberg	0	0	0	-1	5	0.15	0	0	16:15
47	Michael McCarron	1	0	1	+1	6	0.54	2	0	15:45
58	Michael Bunting	0	0	0	+1	4	0.23	0	1	14:57
22	Cole Smith	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	4	1	14:25
17	Tyson Jost	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	0	1	09:30
49	Reid Schaefer	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	3	0	06:33
89	Ozzy Wiesblatt	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	0	06:31
Defense
59	Roman Josi	0	0	0	0	5	0.21	0	0	28:18
72	Justin Barron	0	0	0	+1	3	0.08	4	0	18:46
76	Brady Skjei	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	1	1	18:44
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	0	0	17:09
2	Adam Wilsby	0	2	2	+1	5	0.12	0	1	16:38
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	1	16:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Justus Annunen	30	4	26	.867	2.52	-1.48

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
43	Tom Wilson	1	0	1	+1	3	0.45	4	1	19:32
26	Nic Dowd	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	2	0	18:20
21	Aliaksei Protas	0	0	0	+1	2	0.39	0	0	18:16
72	Anthony Beauvillier	0	0	0	-1	4	0.20	0	1	17:47
80	Pierre-Luc Dubois	1	1	2	+1	2	0.20	1	1	17:35
34	Justin Sourdif	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	2	1	14:30
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	3	3	13:49
9	Ryan Leonard	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	2	0	13:45
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	13:21
8	Alex Ovechkin	0	1	1	0	4	0.12	1	0	13:15
17	Dylan Strome	0	2	2	-1	1	0.00	0	0	11:51
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	07:02
Defense
6	Jakob Chychrun	2	1	3	+1	11	0.50	0	2	29:21
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	1	21:08
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	-1	4	0.06	3	2	21:05
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	6	1	18:57
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	0	3	16:07
74	John Carlson	0	1	1	0	2	0.04	0	2	07:03

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	29	2	27	.931	3.66	+1.66

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
83 Adam Wilsby D	+2.52	+1.10	+0.08	+1.29	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:38
47 Michael McCarron C	+1.62	+0.75	+0.35	+0.39	+0.15	-0.02	0.00	—	15:45
36 Cole Smith R	+1.20	+0.70	0.00	+0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	14:25
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	+1.07	0.00	+0.28	+0.73	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	21:11
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	+0.89	+0.75	+0.40	+0.06	-0.30	0.00	-0.02	—	17:07
91 Steven Stamkos C	+0.88	0.00	+0.29	+0.62	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	18:33
77 Luke Evangelista R	+0.77	0.00	+0.12	+0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:13
58 Michael Bunting L	+0.72	0.00	+0.15	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	14:57
56 Erik Haula L	+0.71	+0.70	+0.23	-0.06	-0.15	+0.03	-0.04	—	18:34
76 Brady Skjei D	+0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.74	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	18:44
17 Tyson Jost C	+0.48	0.00	+0.08	+0.19	+0.15	+0.03	+0.03	—	9:30
48 Nick Perbix D	+0.37	0.00	0.00	+0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:08
49 Reid Schaefer L	+0.26	0.00	+0.07	+0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	6:33
41 Nicolas Hague D	+0.19	0.00	+0.03	+0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	17:09
20 Justin Barron D	+0.13	0.00	+0.05	+0.10	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:46
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C	0.00	0.00	+0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	6:31
9 Filip Forsberg L	-0.43	0.00	+0.10	-0.52	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:15
59 Roman Josi D	-0.44	0.00	+0.14	-0.56	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	28:18
29 Justus Annunen G	-1.48	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.48	56:41

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
6 Jakob Chychrun D	+2.54	+2.05	+0.32	-0.08	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	29:21
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois L	+2.46	+1.45	+0.13	+0.85	0.00	+0.04	-0.01	—	17:35
48 Logan Thompson G	+1.66	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.66	59:16
43 Tom Wilson R	+1.49	+0.75	+0.29	+0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	19:32
21 Aliaksei Protas C	+0.87	0.00	+0.25	+0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:16
74 John Carlson D	+0.67	+0.55	+0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	7:03
26 Nic Dowd C	+0.41	0.00	+0.07	+0.16	+0.30	-0.08	-0.04	—	18:20
17 Dylan Strome C	+0.16	+1.40	0.00	-1.28	0.00	+0.04	0.00	—	11:51
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.09	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	7:02
22 Brandon Duhaime R	+0.09	0.00	+0.01	+0.11	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	13:21
42 Martin Fehérváry D	-0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:57
8 Alex Ovechkin L	-0.15	+0.55	+0.08	-0.78	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:15
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	-0.25	0.00	+0.01	-0.58	+0.15	0.00	+0.17	—	16:07
53 Ethen Frank C	-0.33	0.00	+0.11	-0.57	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	13:49
3 Matt Roy D	-0.43	0.00	+0.04	-0.52	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	21:05
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	-0.53	0.00	+0.13	-0.71	0.00	-0.02	+0.07	—	17:47
38 Rasmus Sandin D	-0.86	0.00	+0.02	-0.74	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	21:08
9 Ryan Leonard R	-0.93	0.00	+0.09	-1.00	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:45
34 Justin Sourdif R	-1.12	0.00	+0.06	-1.08	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	14:30

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.