hockeystats.io

Utah MammothUTA 3–2 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 210 3 23
Washington CapitalsWSH 101 2 25
Playoff odds, % Change
UTA +6.0
WSH -5.6
SJS -1.3
EDM -1.3
CBJ +1.2
NSH -1.0
BOS +1.0
SEA -0.9
NYI +0.8
LAK -0.7
OTT +0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 3, 2026 6:40 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:12 UTA Dylan Guenther (28) Clayton Keller (41), Nick Schmaltz (33) · snap xG 0.05 1–0 ▶
13:23 UTA Mikhail Sergachev (10)PP Clayton Keller (42), Dylan Guenther (23) · snap xG 0.05 2–0 ▶
19:27 WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois (4)PP Rasmus Sandin (19) · snap xG 0.05 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
18:24 UTA JJ Peterka (21)PP Logan Cooley (11), Sean Durzi (16) · snap xG 0.17 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
6:31 WSH Ryan Leonard (11)PP Dylan Strome (33), Jakob Chychrun (27) · snap xG 0.09 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 46%Deserve to win54% WSH
UTAWSH
3.01Expected goals2.57
3Goals (no shootout)2
2.13Expected goals, 5 on 52.01
78Shot attempts56
40Unblocked attempts39
23Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:45 WSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Thompson, down 3–2
With 2:15 left

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots
Martin Fehérváry: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:19) Dylan McIlrath: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:52) JJ Peterka: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:16) JJ Peterka: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:17) Michael Carcone: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:25) Alexander Kerfoot: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:34) Clayton Keller: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:54) Nick Schmaltz: deflected, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:18) John Marino: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:01) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:06) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 8:11) JJ Peterka: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:34) Dylan Guenther: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:36) Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:41) Brandon Duhaime: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:10) Dylan Guenther: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:01) Jakob Chychrun: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:23) Jakob Chychrun: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:49) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:24) Jakob Chychrun: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:25) Sean Durzi: snap, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:54) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:46) JJ Peterka: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:53) Nic Dowd: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:06) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:47) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:14) Sean Durzi: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:23) Lawson Crouse: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 4:02) Trevor van Riemsdyk: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:08) Hendrix Lapierre: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:16) Michael Carcone: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:27) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 7:20) Justin Sourdif: tip-in, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:36) Jakob Chychrun: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:17) Jack McBain: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:01) Clayton Keller: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:34) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:43) Martin Fehérváry: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 10:02) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 12:48) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:05) Dylan Guenther: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:15) Logan Cooley: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:20) Matt Roy: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:32) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:56) Ian Cole: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:24) Lawson Crouse: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:52) JJ Peterka: backhand, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:16) Alexander Kerfoot: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 1:34) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:21) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:28) Ian Cole: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:05) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:40) Tom Wilson: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:00) Tom Wilson: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:00) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:51) Pierre-Luc Dubois: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:52) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:53) JJ Peterka: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:48) John Marino: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:49) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:07) Nick Schmaltz: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 9:39) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:59) Jack McBain: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:12) Jack McBain: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:13) Matt Roy: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:12) Connor McMichael: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:27) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:12) Clayton Keller: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:07) Connor McMichael: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:09) Ryan Leonard: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:42) Nate Schmidt: snap, 91 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 17:58) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:28) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 18:31) Lawson Crouse: snap, 167 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 18:34) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:12) Mikhail Sergachev: GOAL, snap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:23) Pierre-Luc Dubois: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:27) JJ Peterka: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 18:24) Ryan Leonard: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:31)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 011 +1 60.37 0017:49
11 Dylan Guenther 112 +1 70.26 0117:28
67 Lawson Crouse 000 0 50.34 0017:15
27 Barrett Hayton 000 0 10.00 1217:12
22 Jack McBain 000 0 40.20 5017:10
9 Clayton Keller 022 +1 40.15 0016:41
10 JJ Peterka 101 0 90.57 0014:22
92 Logan Cooley 011 0 30.02 0014:04
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 0 10.00 2112:49
14 Alexander Kerfoot 000 0 20.13 2112:46
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 0 10.00 1111:33
53 Michael Carcone 000 0 40.08 1110:57
Defense
6 John Marino 000 0 60.02 1024:24
88 Nate Schmidt 000 0 50.47 1522:58
5 Sean Durzi 011 +1 90.03 1019:51
98 Mikhail Sergachev 101 +1 70.20 0218:33
28 Ian Cole 000 0 40.16 0018:27
3 Olli Maatta 000 0 00.00 0113:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 25223 .920 2.57 +0.57

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
43 Tom Wilson 000 -1 30.19 3222:25
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois 101 -1 60.56 1219:09
17 Dylan Strome 011 0 00.00 0318:49
8 Alex Ovechkin 000 0 60.47 3018:25
77 Connor McMichael 000 0 20.10 0118:04
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 10.09 10115:00
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 0 30.05 0314:31
9 Ryan Leonard 101 -1 60.15 3114:16
34 Justin Sourdif 000 0 20.00 0412:29
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 20.02 0212:02
53 Ethen Frank 000 0 00.00 0210:20
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 0 10.16 0108:47
Defense
6 Jakob Chychrun 011 -1 100.44 1127:52
3 Matt Roy 000 -1 50.01 2223:20
38 Rasmus Sandin 011 0 50.07 2622:35
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 0 20.23 2320:41
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 0 10.01 1114:01
52 Dylan McIlrath 000 0 10.02 0106:55
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Logan Thompson 23320 .870 2.35 -0.65

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
77 JJ Peterka R +1.90 +0.75 +0.37 +0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:22
9 Clayton Keller R +1.74 +1.40 +0.10 +0.11 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:41
11 Dylan Guenther R +1.54 +1.30 +0.17 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:28
92 Logan Cooley C +1.34 +0.70 +0.01 +0.63 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:04
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +1.10 +0.75 +0.13 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 18:33
8 Nick Schmaltz C +0.76 +0.55 +0.24 +0.04 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 17:49
67 Lawson Crouse L +0.74 0.00 +0.22 +0.55 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 17:15
88 Nate Schmidt D +0.68 0.00 +0.30 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 22:58
70 Karel Vejmelka G +0.57 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.57 59:50
28 Ian Cole D +0.31 0.00 +0.11 +0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:27
50 Sean Durzi D +0.29 +0.55 +0.02 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:51
2 Olli Maatta D +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 13:23
6 John Marino D +0.16 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:24
27 Barrett Hayton C +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.11 +0.15 -0.06 +0.10 — 17:12
22 Jack McBain C -0.10 0.00 +0.13 -0.07 -0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:10
53 Michael Carcone L -0.12 0.00 +0.05 -0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:57
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 +0.05 +0.07 — 12:49
56 Kailer Yamamoto R -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 11:33
15 Alexander Kerfoot C -0.34 0.00 +0.08 -0.35 -0.15 +0.02 +0.05 — 12:46

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois L +1.71 +0.75 +0.37 +0.47 0.00 +0.04 +0.08 — 19:09
38 Rasmus Sandin D +0.96 +0.70 +0.05 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.32 — 22:35
29 Hendrix Lapierre C +0.78 0.00 +0.10 +0.65 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 8:47
6 Jakob Chychrun D +0.72 +0.55 +0.28 -0.01 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 27:52
17 Dylan Strome C +0.67 +0.70 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 18:49
43 Tom Wilson R +0.63 0.00 +0.12 +0.32 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 22:25
9 Ryan Leonard R +0.58 +0.75 +0.10 -0.45 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 14:16
8 Alex Ovechkin L +0.45 0.00 +0.31 +0.28 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 18:25
3 Matt Roy D +0.27 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 23:20
24 Connor McMichael C +0.25 0.00 +0.07 +0.14 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 18:04
72 Anthony Beauvillier L +0.22 0.00 +0.03 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 14:31
52 Dylan McIlrath D +0.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 6:55
34 Justin Sourdif R -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 -0.01 +0.20 — 12:29
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:01
42 Martin Fehérváry D -0.24 0.00 +0.15 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 20:41
53 Ethen Frank C -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 10:20
22 Brandon Duhaime R -0.57 0.00 +0.02 -0.72 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 — 12:02
48 Logan Thompson G -0.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.65 57:45
26 Nic Dowd C -0.72 0.00 +0.06 -0.81 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 15:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.