Thursday, March 12, 2026
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 6:17 PM EDT.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
SJS 49%Deserve to win 51% BOS
SJS BOS
3.47 Expected goals 3.58
4 Goals (no shootout) 2
2.50 Expected goals, 5 on 5 2.61
46 Shot attempts 79
38 Unblocked attempts 58
28 Shots on goal 41
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
2nd Period
15:27
SJS
Goalie
Goalie · Nedeljkovic +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.01 xG, 23 shots on goal
3rd Period
16:23
BOS
Pulled goalie
Pulled goalie · Pulled Swayman, down 4–1
With 3:37 left; BOS scored at 19:07 of the 3rd (4–2)
Shot map
SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → BOS shoots
Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:01)
Collin Graf: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 1:20)
Will Smith: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:21)
Andrew Peeke: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:09)
Nikita Zadorov: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:13)
Mark Kastelic: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:19)
Casey Mittelstadt: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 3:35)
Charlie McAvoy: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:57)
David Pastrnak: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:05)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 4:48)
Nikita Zadorov: wrist, 164 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:35)
Elias Lindholm: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:30)
Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 161 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:07)
Fraser Minten: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 8:29)
Mason Lohrei: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:14)
Jonathan Aspirot: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:41)
Alex Steeves: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:55)
Andrew Peeke: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:20)
Sean Kuraly: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:07)
Mason Lohrei: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:10)
Adam Gaudette: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:02)
Fraser Minten: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 14:14)
Adam Gaudette: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:28)
Ryan Reaves: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:24)
Dmitry Orlov: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:33)
Hampus Lindholm: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:48)
Mark Kastelic: bat, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:49)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:06)
Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:34)
Nikita Zadorov: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:25)
Will Smith: deflected, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:04)
Sam Dickinson: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:11)
Kiefer Sherwood: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:42)
Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:53)
Mason Lohrei: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:59)
Tyler Toffoli: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 6:32)
Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:36)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 7:14)
Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 7:30)
Mark Kastelic: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:44)
Hampus Lindholm: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:23)
Fraser Minten: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:37)
Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:12)
Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:40)
Casey Mittelstadt: wrist, 100 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 9:49)
Will Smith: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:00)
Elias Lindholm: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:32)
Sean Kuraly: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:33)
Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:17)
Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 14:06)
Macklin Celebrini: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:11)
Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:13)
Ryan Reaves: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 14:40)
David Pastrnak: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 14:50)
Elias Lindholm: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 15:27)
Pavel Zacha: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:16)
Pavel Zacha: bat, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:17)
Hampus Lindholm: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:23)
Jonathan Aspirot: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:08)
Mark Kastelic: tip-in, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:36)
Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:14)
Viktor Arvidsson: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:38)
Shakir Mukhamadullin: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:04)
Alex Steeves: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:14)
David Pastrnak: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:31)
Collin Graf: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 4:17)
Casey Mittelstadt: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:34)
Alex Steeves: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:43)
Fraser Minten: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:51)
Collin Graf: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:25)
Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 5:27)
Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:53)
William Eklund: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 8:18)
Sam Dickinson: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:57)
Morgan Geekie: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:45)
Tanner Jeannot: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 10:47)
Hampus Lindholm: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:53)
Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:11)
William Eklund: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 12:12)
Nikita Zadorov: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:43)
Elias Lindholm: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 13:09)
Charlie McAvoy: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:15)
Hampus Lindholm: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:35)
Charlie McAvoy: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:30)
Andrew Peeke: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:17)
Pavel Zacha: slap, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:45)
Viktor Arvidsson: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 17:53)
Pavel Zacha: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:39)
Mario Ferraro: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:52)
Zack Ostapchuk: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:59)
Michael Misa: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 5:57)
Tyler Toffoli: GOAL, deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.33 (P2 14:15)
Collin Graf: GOAL, wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 3:13)
William Eklund: GOAL, bat, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 8:20)
Fraser Minten: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:30)
David Pastrnak: GOAL, slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:07)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
San Jose Sharks
Boston Bruins
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
San Jose Sharks
Boston Bruins
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
88 David Pastrnak R
+2.08
+1.45
+0.47
+0.14
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
25:00
27 Hampus Lindholm D
+1.06
0.00
+0.15
+0.88
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
20:05
21 Alex Steeves C
+0.99
0.00
+0.18
+0.83
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
10:44
93 Fraser Minten C
+0.84
+0.75
+0.33
-0.23
0.00
+0.03
-0.04
—
17:21
28 Elias Lindholm C
+0.77
0.00
+0.28
+0.48
0.00
+0.03
-0.02
—
20:25
73 Charlie McAvoy D
+0.70
+0.70
+0.07
-0.10
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
24:26
11 Casey Mittelstadt C
+0.55
+0.55
+0.13
-0.28
+0.15
0.00
0.00
—
19:03
91 Nikita Zadorov D
+0.50
0.00
+0.03
+0.43
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
15:59
92 Marat Khusnutdinov C
+0.46
+0.55
0.00
-0.21
0.00
0.00
+0.12
—
14:10
6 Mason Lohrei D
+0.25
0.00
+0.09
+0.29
-0.15
0.00
+0.03
—
20:19
39 Morgan Geekie C
+0.23
0.00
+0.02
+0.19
0.00
0.00
+0.02
—
20:43
71 Viktor Arvidsson L
+0.05
0.00
+0.17
-0.11
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
17:24
45 Jonathan Aspirot D
-0.06
0.00
+0.02
-0.12
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
15:27
47 Mark Kastelic C
-0.16
0.00
+0.08
-0.23
0.00
-0.01
0.00
—
7:58
52 Sean Kuraly C
-0.26
0.00
+0.06
-0.38
0.00
+0.06
0.00
—
8:23
84 Tanner Jeannot L
-0.30
0.00
+0.07
-0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
8:54
18 Pavel Zacha C
-0.31
0.00
+0.15
-0.46
0.00
+0.02
-0.02
—
19:05
1 Jeremy Swayman G
-0.53
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-0.53
56:46
26 Andrew Peeke D
-0.81
0.00
+0.02
-0.85
0.00
0.00
+0.03
—
17:12
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.