San Jose SharksSJS 4–7 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
San Jose SharksSJS	2	1	1	4	23
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	1	3	3	7	24

Playoff odds, %	Change
OTT	+7.1
SJS	-6.3
DET	-1.8
BOS	-1.5
EDM	+1.2
LAK	+1.2
SEA	+1.1
NSH	+1.1
CBJ	-1.1
NYI	-0.8
MTL	-0.6
UTA	+0.6
VGK	+0.5
PHI	-0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 15, 2026 5:05 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:05	SJS	Mario Ferraro (6) Shakir Mukhamadullin (5) · slap xG 0.08	1–0 ▶
7:33	OTT	Drake Batherson (26)PP Unassisted · xG 0.81	1–1 ▶
14:43	SJS	Tyler Toffoli (18) Mario Ferraro (12), Shakir Mukhamadullin (6) · tip-in xG 0.10	2–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:31	OTT	Warren Foegele (9) Michael Amadio (17) · wrist xG 0.03	2–2 ▶
10:46	SJS	Collin Graf (19) Macklin Celebrini (60), Sam Dickinson (11) · wrist xG 0.10	3–2 ▶
13:40	OTT	Fabian Zetterlund (13)PP Jordan Spence (16) · slap xG 0.04	3–3 ▶
14:45	OTT	Tyler Kleven (3) Fabian Zetterlund (13), Warren Foegele (3) · wrist xG 0.13	3–4 ▶
3rd Period
3:28	SJS	Michael Misa (7) Tyler Toffoli (26), Vincent Desharnais (4) · snap xG 0.07	4–4 ▶
13:08	OTT	Drake Batherson (27) Artem Zub (19), Claude Giroux (30) · deflected xG 0.21	4–5 ▶
14:50	OTT	Dylan Cozens (24) Brady Tkachuk (28) · wrist xG 0.11	4–6 ▶
17:43	OTT	Brady Tkachuk (18)EN Michael Amadio (18), Artem Zub (20) · wrist xG 0.93	4–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 17%Deserve to win83% OTT

SJS		OTT
2.05	Expected goals	5.06
4	Goals (no shootout)	7
1.93	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.85
45	Shot attempts	67
31	Unblocked attempts	48
23	Shots on goal	24

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
12:20	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.64–0.36 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:40 to 12:40 of the 1st; goals 1–1
3rd Period
0:50	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced SJS 1.04–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 11:10 of the 2nd to 1:10 of the 3rd; goals 2–0
3:28	OTT	Goalie	Goalie · Ullmark −2.4 goals saved 4 goals on 1.59 xG, 20 shots on goal
16:52	SJS	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Brossoit, down 6–4 With 3:08 left; OTT scored at 17:43 of the 3rd (4–7)

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Macklin Celebrini	0	1	1	-1	3	0.23	3	0	20:40
2	Will Smith	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	0	18:12
51	Collin Graf	1	0	1	0	4	0.27	0	0	17:10
27	William Eklund	0	0	0	-1	4	0.33	1	2	17:07
44	Kiefer Sherwood	0	0	0	-1	3	0.22	3	0	16:36
84	Pavol Regenda	0	0	0	-2	1	0.23	3	1	14:22
73	Tyler Toffoli	1	1	2	-1	3	0.21	0	1	14:22
63	Zack Ostapchuk	0	0	0	+1	3	0.10	3	1	13:27
23	Barclay Goodrow	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	13:01
96	Philipp Kurashev	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	2	0	13:00
77	Michael Misa	1	0	1	0	1	0.07	0	0	11:58
81	Adam Gaudette	0	0	0	+1	4	0.07	0	1	11:33
Defense
73	Vincent Desharnais	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	4	1	20:35
38	Mario Ferraro	1	1	2	0	3	0.10	0	2	20:33
6	Sam Dickinson	0	1	1	+2	8	0.09	0	4	20:26
9	Dmitry Orlov	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	1	18:47
3	John Klingberg	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	1	0	17:07
85	Shakir Mukhamadullin	0	2	2	0	3	0.02	0	4	17:02

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Laurent Brossoit	23	6	18	.783	4.13	-1.87

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
12	Shane Pinto	0	0	0	0	5	0.35	2	0	19:15
22	Michael Amadio	0	2	2	+1	4	0.14	0	1	17:54
18	Tim Stützle	0	0	0	0	4	0.34	1	0	16:34
8	Brady Tkachuk	1	1	2	0	7	1.46	3	0	16:26
24	Dylan Cozens	1	0	1	-1	4	0.26	3	0	16:19
21	Nick Cousins	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	3	0	15:08
19	Drake Batherson	2	0	2	0	4	1.12	1	0	14:47
71	Ridly Greig	0	0	0	-1	3	0.21	1	0	13:47
20	Lars Eller	0	0	0	+2	2	0.15	3	2	13:42
37	Warren Foegele	1	1	2	+2	6	0.45	1	1	13:17
20	Fabian Zetterlund	1	1	2	+1	6	0.17	5	0	12:44
28	Claude Giroux	0	1	1	0	1	0.03	1	0	10:58
Defense
72	Thomas Chabot	0	0	0	+1	3	0.00	0	1	28:29
2	Artem Zub	0	2	2	+1	3	0.01	0	3	19:54
43	Tyler Kleven	1	0	1	+1	3	0.14	1	2	19:31
10	Jordan Spence	0	1	1	+1	3	0.06	1	1	17:35
33	Nikolas Matinpalo	0	0	0	-1	5	0.06	2	1	15:47
44	Dennis Gilbert	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	2	0	13:53

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Linus Ullmark	23	4	19	.826	2.05	-1.95

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
6 Sam Dickinson D	+1.92	+0.55	+0.06	+1.13	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	20:26
73 Tyler Toffoli C	+1.63	+1.45	+0.14	-0.18	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	14:22
5 Vincent Desharnais D	+1.34	+0.55	0.00	+0.91	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	20:35
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D	+1.04	+1.25	+0.01	-0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.16	—	17:02
38 Mario Ferraro D	+0.94	+1.45	+0.06	-0.67	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	20:33
51 Collin Graf R	+0.62	+0.75	+0.17	-0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:10
77 Michael Misa C	+0.57	+0.75	+0.05	-0.30	+0.15	-0.06	-0.02	—	11:58
71 Macklin Celebrini C	+0.37	+0.70	+0.15	-0.38	0.00	-0.04	-0.06	—	20:40
72 William Eklund L	+0.06	0.00	+0.21	-0.26	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	—	17:07
63 Zack Ostapchuk C	-0.06	0.00	+0.07	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	13:27
96 Philipp Kurashev C	-0.07	0.00	+0.05	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	13:00
23 Barclay Goodrow C	-0.07	0.00	0.00	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	13:01
81 Adam Gaudette R	-0.08	0.00	+0.04	-0.14	0.00	-0.04	+0.05	—	11:33
44 Kiefer Sherwood L	-0.28	0.00	+0.14	-0.38	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:36
2 Will Smith C	-0.31	0.00	+0.04	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:12
84 Pavol Regenda L	-0.31	0.00	+0.15	-0.49	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:22
9 Dmitry Orlov D	-1.44	0.00	0.00	-1.30	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	—	18:47
3 John Klingberg D	-1.73	0.00	0.00	-1.58	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:07
93 Laurent Brossoit G	-1.87	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.87	59:09

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
7 Brady Tkachuk L	+3.11	+1.45	+0.95	+0.65	0.00	+0.04	+0.02	—	16:26
19 Drake Batherson R	+2.37	+1.50	+0.73	-0.01	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	14:47
22 Michael Amadio R	+1.99	+1.40	+0.09	+0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:54
2 Artem Zub D	+1.98	+1.25	+0.01	+0.72	-0.15	0.00	+0.15	—	19:54
24 Dylan Cozens C	+1.76	+0.75	+0.17	+0.84	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:19
37 Warren Foegele L	+1.69	+1.30	+0.29	+0.09	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	13:17
43 Tyler Kleven D	+1.65	+0.75	+0.09	+0.73	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:31
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	+1.58	+1.45	+0.11	-0.13	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	12:44
10 Jordan Spence D	+1.35	+0.70	+0.04	+0.62	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	17:35
71 Ridly Greig C	+1.08	0.00	+0.14	+0.95	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:47
72 Thomas Chabot D	+0.89	0.00	0.00	+0.90	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	28:29
28 Claude Giroux R	+0.71	+0.55	+0.02	-0.03	+0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	10:58
12 Shane Pinto C	+0.43	0.00	+0.23	+0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:15
89 Lars Eller C	+0.25	0.00	+0.10	+0.03	0.00	+0.03	+0.10	—	13:42
21 Nick Cousins C	+0.20	0.00	+0.03	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	15:08
18 Tim Stützle C	-0.08	0.00	+0.22	-0.18	-0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	16:34
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D	-0.24	0.00	+0.04	-0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:47
6 Dennis Gilbert D	-0.56	0.00	+0.05	-0.62	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:53
35 Linus Ullmark G	-1.95	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-1.95	60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.