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New York IslandersNYI 2–1 Final/OT San Jose SharksSJS

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 1001 2 34
San Jose SharksSJS 0100 1 31
Playoff odds, % Change
SJS -7.2
NYI +6.6
EDM +1.7
CBJ -1.7
SEA +1.2
BOS -1.0
LAK +1.0
PIT -1.0
PHI -0.8
NSH +0.8
WPG +0.8
WSH -0.7
VGK +0.7
UTA +0.7
OTT -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 7, 2026 9:53 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:37 NYI Tony DeAngelo (5) Calum Ritchie (10) · wrist xG 0.04 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
0:33 SJS Macklin Celebrini (32) Will Smith (25), John Klingberg (12) · wrist xG 0.08 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
4:20 NYI Bo Horvat (27) Matthew Schaefer (26), Mathew Barzal (40) · backhand xG 0.19 2–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 47%Deserve to win53% SJS
NYISJS
2.62Expected goals2.80
2Goals (no shootout)1
2.26Expected goals, 5 on 52.20
68Shot attempts57
47Unblocked attempts45
34Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
5:00 SJS No shift No shift · Reaves, 12:23 on the bench
No shift from 12:31 of the 2nd to 7:18 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (5:36) before that

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Calum Ritchie: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:20) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:31) Adam Gaudette: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:49) Carson Soucy: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:28) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:35) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:47) Bo Horvat: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:26) Anders Lee: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:55) Adam Pelech: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:03) Michael Misa: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 5:36) Collin Graf: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 5:55) John Klingberg: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:05) Ondrej Palat: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:19) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:52) Will Smith: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 9:13) Macklin Celebrini: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:23) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:03) Will Smith: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:12) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:35) Adam Pelech: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:11) Ryan Reaves: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:41) Bo Horvat: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:12) Emil Heineman: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:47) Macklin Celebrini: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:58) John Klingberg: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:18) Will Smith: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:28) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:46) Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:40) Adam Gaudette: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 1:00) Bo Horvat: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:30) Anthony Duclair: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:35) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 3:51) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:50) Sam Dickinson: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:55) Mario Ferraro: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:15) Adam Pelech: wrist, 107 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:31) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:45) Anthony Duclair: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:47) Ryan Pulock: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:57) Mathew Barzal: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:42) Adam Pelech: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:47) Adam Pelech: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:28) Mario Ferraro: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:54) Bo Horvat: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:02) Collin Graf: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 15:51) John Klingberg: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:56) Will Smith: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:25) Macklin Celebrini: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:37) Anders Lee: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:16) Simon Holmstrom: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:24) William Eklund: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:42) Michael Misa: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:43) Collin Graf: slap, 9 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 18:24) Simon Holmstrom: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 0:13) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:23) Anders Lee: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:25) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:26) John Klingberg: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:32) Collin Graf: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:54) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 10 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:55) Emil Heineman: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:57) Bo Horvat: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.32 (P3 4:59) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:07) Will Smith: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:51) Anders Lee: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:22) Scott Mayfield: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:32) Marc Gatcomb: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:33) John Klingberg: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:14) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:15) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:44) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 11:38) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:01) Adam Pelech: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:06) William Eklund: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:42) Sam Dickinson: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:44) Tyler Toffoli: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:45) Michael Misa: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:57) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:49) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:57) Calum Ritchie: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:21) Collin Graf: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:24) Will Smith: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 19:18) Will Smith: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 0:09) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (OT 1:07) John Klingberg: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 1:20) Michael Misa: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 2:08) Bo Horvat: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 2:46) Dmitry Orlov: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 3:02) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 3:09) Tony DeAngelo: GOAL, wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:37) Macklin Celebrini: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:33) Bo Horvat: GOAL, backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (OT 4:20)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Mathew Barzal 011 0 60.19 2124:23
14 Bo Horvat 101 +1 70.79 1223:17
51 Emil Heineman 000 0 40.16 2017:50
10 Brayden Schenn 000 0 30.17 1117:26
92 Simon Holmstrom 000 +1 30.20 0017:04
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 0 20.10 2016:23
64 Calum Ritchie 011 0 30.14 1015:56
81 Ondrej Palat 000 0 10.01 2014:42
72 Anders Lee 000 0 50.23 4014:39
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 20.10 2009:52
11 Anthony Duclair 000 0 30.14 0008:52
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 10.02 2008:41
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 011 +1 60.08 0129:01
3 Adam Pelech 000 0 70.16 4323:38
77 Tony DeAngelo 101 +1 60.08 0022:09
6 Ryan Pulock 000 -1 20.03 1221:06
7 Carson Soucy 000 0 30.00 4014:38
24 Scott Mayfield 000 0 40.03 0112:34
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 31130 .968 2.80 +1.80

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 101 0 70.43 1123:10
2 Will Smith 011 +1 80.53 0021:57
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 0 10.04 1321:39
51 Collin Graf 000 0 50.57 2118:54
27 William Eklund 000 0 40.16 0217:08
44 Kiefer Sherwood 000 0 20.05 3316:32
77 Michael Misa 000 0 40.37 0014:23
73 Tyler Toffoli 000 0 30.03 1014:15
81 Adam Gaudette 000 0 30.20 1113:51
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -1 00.00 3210:23
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 -1 00.00 2009:03
75 Ryan Reaves 000 -1 10.10 1006:20
Defense
38 Mario Ferraro 000 0 30.07 1322:57
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 0 60.12 4122:23
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 0 10.00 4020:38
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 000 0 00.00 0219:39
3 John Klingberg 011 0 70.11 1019:28
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -1 20.02 2117:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov 34232 .941 2.62 +0.62

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
14 Bo Horvat C +1.82 +0.75 +0.51 +0.48 0.00 +0.02 +0.06 — 23:17
30 Ilya Sorokin G +1.80 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.80 64:20
13 Mathew Barzal C +1.14 +0.55 +0.12 +0.26 +0.15 -0.01 +0.07 — 24:23
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.93 +0.75 +0.05 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:09
6 Ryan Pulock D +0.90 0.00 +0.02 +0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 21:06
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.48 +0.70 +0.05 -0.41 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 29:01
64 Calum Ritchie C +0.38 +0.70 +0.09 -0.40 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:56
51 Emil Heineman L +0.35 0.00 +0.11 +0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:50
11 Anthony Duclair L +0.32 0.00 +0.09 +0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:52
53 Casey Cizikas C +0.13 0.00 +0.06 +0.06 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:52
16 Marc Gatcomb C +0.13 0.00 +0.01 +0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 8:41
3 Adam Pelech D +0.13 0.00 +0.10 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 23:38
27 Anders Lee L +0.11 0.00 +0.15 -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:39
24 Scott Mayfield D +0.03 0.00 +0.02 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 12:34
92 Simon Holmstrom R -0.01 0.00 +0.13 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:04
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.02 0.00 +0.07 -0.18 0.00 +0.07 +0.02 — 16:23
10 Brayden Schenn C -0.14 0.00 +0.11 -0.28 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 17:26
4 Carson Soucy D -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:38
81 Ondrej Palat L -0.33 0.00 +0.01 -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:42

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Macklin Celebrini C +1.42 +0.75 +0.28 +0.36 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 23:10
2 Will Smith C +1.40 +0.70 +0.34 +0.24 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 21:57
51 Collin Graf R +0.64 0.00 +0.37 +0.33 -0.15 0.00 +0.09 — 18:54
3 John Klingberg D +0.63 +0.55 +0.07 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:28
30 Yaroslav Askarov G +0.62 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.62 64:20
9 Dmitry Orlov D +0.49 0.00 +0.08 +0.53 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 22:23
72 William Eklund L +0.46 0.00 +0.10 +0.24 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 17:08
77 Michael Misa C +0.37 0.00 +0.24 +0.20 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 14:23
44 Kiefer Sherwood L +0.14 0.00 +0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 16:32
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.13 0.00 +0.02 +0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:15
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.08 0.00 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 — 21:39
5 Vincent Desharnais D -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:38
81 Adam Gaudette R -0.05 0.00 +0.13 -0.20 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 13:51
6 Sam Dickinson D -0.07 0.00 +0.01 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 17:31
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 19:39
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.29 0.00 +0.04 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 22:57
23 Barclay Goodrow C -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 10:23
75 Ryan Reaves R -0.36 0.00 +0.07 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 6:20
63 Zack Ostapchuk C -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 9:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.