Nashville PredatorsNSH 2–3 Final Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Nashville PredatorsNSH	1	1	0	2	25
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	1	0	2	3	27

Playoff odds, %	Change
CBJ	+5.3
NSH	-4.5
BOS	-0.9
NYI	-0.8
UTA	+0.8
WSH	-0.7
SJS	+0.7
LAK	+0.7
EDM	+0.6
SEA	+0.6
DET	-0.6
PHI	-0.5
OTT	-0.4
VGK	+0.4
MTL	-0.4
PIT	-0.4
BUF	-0.3

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 3, 2026 6:40 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
14:23	CBJ	Adam Fantilli (17) Kirill Marchenko (29), Mason Marchment (16) · wrist xG 0.10	0–1 ▶
19:32	NSH	Filip Forsberg (27)PP Steven Stamkos (17), Luke Evangelista (38) · wrist xG 0.89	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
14:39	NSH	Ryan O'Reilly (22) Unassisted · deflected xG 0.21	2–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:52	CBJ	Sean Monahan (12)SH Unassisted · snap xG 0.15	2–2 ▶
6:07	CBJ	Charlie Coyle (16) Damon Severson (20), Denton Mateychuk (15) · deflected xG 0.12	2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NSH 62%Deserve to win38% CBJ

NSH		CBJ
3.69	Expected goals	3.03
2	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.63	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.85
57	Shot attempts	69
37	Unblocked attempts	52
25	Shots on goal	27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
7:46	CBJ	Goalie change	Goalie change · Merzlikins in for Greaves 7:46 of the 1st; Greaves had allowed 0 goals on 0 shots (0.15 xG)
16:02	CBJ	Goalie change	Goalie change · Greaves in for Merzlikins 16:02 of the 1st; Merzlikins had allowed 0 goals on 2 shots (0.24 xG)
2nd Period
1:10	NSH	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced CBJ 1.74–0.39 In xG over 10 minutes, 12:00 of the 1st to 2:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–1
3rd Period
14:00	CBJ	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.33–0.13 In xG over 10 minutes, 4:30 to 14:30 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
17:49	NSH	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Annunen, down 3–2 With 2:11 left

Shot map

NSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CBJ shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Nashville Predators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
9	Filip Forsberg	1	0	1	-1	9	0.99	0	0	22:38
56	Erik Haula	0	0	0	-1	1	0.27	0	3	20:43
77	Luke Evangelista	0	1	1	-1	4	0.44	0	0	20:23
90	Ryan O'Reilly	1	0	1	-1	6	0.79	1	1	18:36
81	Jonathan Marchessault	0	0	0	-2	3	0.15	1	0	18:28
91	Steven Stamkos	0	1	1	-2	5	0.34	0	1	17:34
58	Michael Bunting	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	15:36
17	Tyson Jost	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	1	2	13:20
71	Matthew Wood	0	0	0	0	4	0.09	0	0	11:58
68	Zachary L'Heureux	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	1	1	08:34
89	Ozzy Wiesblatt	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	2	0	07:38
22	Cole Smith	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	00:03
Defense
59	Roman Josi	0	0	0	-3	4	0.11	0	2	26:52
76	Brady Skjei	0	0	0	+1	5	0.07	1	0	22:46
41	Nicolas Hague	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	2	1	21:44
48	Nick Perbix	0	0	0	0	4	0.08	0	1	19:15
3	Nick Blankenburg	0	0	0	-1	4	0.06	0	2	17:53
72	Justin Barron	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	1	10:10

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Justus Annunen	27	3	24	.889	3.03	+0.03

Columbus Blue Jackets

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
3	Charlie Coyle	1	0	1	+2	6	0.56	2	2	22:11
23	Sean Monahan	1	0	1	0	6	0.35	0	0	19:29
86	Kirill Marchenko	0	1	1	+1	10	0.71	1	0	18:05
19	Adam Fantilli	1	0	1	+1	5	0.34	1	0	16:58
27	Mason Marchment	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	0	0	16:55
4	Cole Sillinger	0	0	0	+1	5	0.12	1	1	15:48
24	Mathieu Olivier	0	0	0	+1	3	0.05	2	1	15:33
91	Kent Johnson	0	0	0	-1	7	0.36	1	0	15:10
58	Danton Heinen	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	1	1	13:44
21	Isac Lundeström	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	11:03
10	Dmitri Voronkov	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	08:39
18	Miles Wood	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	2	07:49
Defense
9	Ivan Provorov	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	4	26:49
44	Erik Gudbranson	0	0	0	+1	4	0.07	0	2	21:04
78	Damon Severson	0	1	1	+1	2	0.00	0	0	20:28
5	Denton Mateychuk	0	1	1	+2	7	0.28	0	1	19:48
15	Dante Fabbro	0	0	0	0	4	0.06	2	0	14:54
6	Egor Zamula	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	2	2	11:44

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jet Greaves	23	2	21	.913	3.45	+1.45
Elvis Merzlikins	2	0	2	1.000	0.24	+0.24

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Nashville Predators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
90 Ryan O'Reilly C	+1.45	+0.75	+0.52	+0.11	0.00	+0.02	+0.05	—	18:36
9 Filip Forsberg L	+1.30	+0.75	+0.64	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:38
76 Brady Skjei D	+0.60	0.00	+0.04	+0.57	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:46
20 Justin Barron D	+0.53	0.00	+0.04	+0.46	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	10:10
89 Ozzy Wiesblatt C	+0.52	0.00	0.00	+0.52	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	7:38
91 Steven Stamkos C	+0.48	+0.70	+0.22	-0.30	-0.15	-0.01	+0.01	—	17:34
77 Luke Evangelista R	+0.36	+0.55	+0.29	-0.32	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	20:23
68 Zachary L'Heureux L	+0.29	0.00	+0.07	+0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	8:34
56 Erik Haula L	+0.18	0.00	+0.17	-0.21	0.00	+0.07	+0.15	—	20:43
29 Justus Annunen G	+0.03	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.03	57:49
48 Nick Perbix D	+0.03	0.00	+0.05	-0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:15
17 Tyson Jost C	+0.01	0.00	+0.08	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	+0.12	—	13:20
36 Cole Smith R	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	0:03
37 Nick Blankenburg D	-0.07	0.00	+0.04	-0.34	+0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	17:53
71 Matthew Wood R	-0.12	0.00	+0.06	-0.13	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	11:58
41 Nicolas Hague D	-0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:44
58 Michael Bunting L	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.27	-0.15	+0.01	+0.01	—	15:36
81 Jonathan Marchessault R	-0.43	0.00	+0.09	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	18:28
59 Roman Josi D	-0.81	0.00	+0.07	-1.11	+0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	26:52

Columbus Blue Jackets

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
3 Charlie Coyle C	+1.54	+0.75	+0.36	+0.40	0.00	-0.03	+0.06	—	22:11
73 Jet Greaves G	+1.45	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.45	51:44
23 Sean Monahan C	+1.28	+0.75	+0.23	+0.21	0.00	+0.11	-0.02	—	19:29
5 Denton Mateychuk D	+1.27	+0.55	+0.18	+0.48	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:48
19 Adam Fantilli C	+1.08	+0.75	+0.22	0.00	+0.15	-0.04	0.00	—	16:58
78 Damon Severson D	+1.00	+0.70	0.00	+0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:28
86 Kirill Marchenko R	+0.95	+0.70	+0.46	-0.06	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	18:05
4 Cole Sillinger C	+0.69	0.00	+0.08	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:48
6 Egor Zamula D	+0.45	0.00	+0.01	+0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	11:44
17 Mason Marchment L	+0.37	+0.55	+0.01	-0.05	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:55
24 Mathieu Olivier R	+0.36	0.00	+0.03	+0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	15:33
91 Kent Johnson C	+0.26	0.00	+0.23	+0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:10
43 Danton Heinen L	+0.26	0.00	+0.02	+0.20	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	13:44
44 Erik Gudbranson D	+0.26	0.00	+0.05	-0.19	+0.30	0.00	+0.10	—	21:04
90 Elvis Merzlikins G	+0.24	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.24	8:16
15 Dante Fabbro D	+0.24	0.00	+0.04	+0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	14:54
11 Miles Wood L	-0.01	0.00	+0.02	-0.13	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	—	7:49
10 Dmitri Voronkov L	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	8:39
9 Ivan Provorov D	-0.15	0.00	+0.01	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	26:49
21 Isac Lundeström C	-0.33	0.00	+0.01	-0.26	0.00	-0.04	-0.04	—	11:03

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.