Calgary Flames

Pacific Division · Western Conference · 2–6–0, 4 pts in 8 games · GF 17, GA 37 (-20) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	55	57

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 84–95 points (middle half of seasons; median 89, 10th–90th percentile 79–100). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (31.2% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (28.8%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

CGY median 89

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

CGY's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfCGY's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 18	vs CAR	3–2	W	61.7
Oct 15	@ VGK	2–6	L	56.2
Oct 13	@ ANA	4–2	W	50.1
Oct 10	vs ANA	2–4	L	50.1
Oct 8	vs COL	3–7	L	63.4
Oct 4	@ SEA	1–6	L	47.4
Oct 3	@ VAN	1–4	L	32.5
Oct 1	vs SEA	1–6	L	47.4

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Thu Oct 22	vs MIN	35	0.86	57.9
Sat Oct 24	vs DET	46	1.06	45.9
Mon Oct 26	vs TOR	50	1.12	42.3
Wed Oct 28	@ EDM	29	0.76	55.7
Fri Oct 30	vs SEA	45	1.03	47.4
Sat Oct 31	@ COL	23	0.66	63.4
Mon Nov 2	@ SJS	38	0.92	45.1
Wed Nov 4	@ SEA	36	0.88	47.4
Fri Nov 6	vs ANA	42	0.99	50.1
Sun Nov 8	vs PHI	50	1.12	42.1
Expected over these 10			9.4

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	37.7
At home	42.0
Away	33.5
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	17.4
Points %, last 10 games	25.0
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	45.9	26th
xG share, 5 on 5	47.4	24th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	52.7	8th
xG for / against per game	2.92 / 3.44
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	17 vs 23.4	-6.4
Goals against vs xG against	37 vs 27.6
Goals saved above expected		-10.1

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
86	Joel Farabee	L	8	0	6	6	-5	20	1	6	18:25
16	Morgan Frost	C	8	3	2	5	-7	17	5	6	15:45
27	Matt Coronato	R	8	2	3	5	-8	19	0	2	17:39
17	Yegor Sharangovich	C	8	2	2	4	-1	16	2	2	16:34
61	Aydar Suniev	L	5	2	1	3	-2	7	5	5	14:08
22	Ryan Strome	C	8	1	2	3	-6	18	3	4	13:55
92	Matvei Gridin	R	8	1	2	3	-8	14	2	4	14:36
43	Adam Klapka	R	8	2	0	2	-3	11	27	6	10:39
55	Jake Middletonfrom MIN	D	8	1	1	2	-4	10	14	13	17:46
76	Martin Pospisil	C	8	1	1	2	-7	15	35	4	13:06
11	Mikael Backlund	C	8	1	1	2	-3	24	7	3	17:43
71	Simon Nemecfrom NJD	D	8	0	2	2	-8	14	2	9	21:08
19	Zayne Parekh	D	8	0	2	2	-10	14	6	9	17:49
7	Kevin Bahl	D	8	1	0	1	-2	9	9	8	21:37
37	Yan Kuznetsov	D	7	0	1	1	-6	10	9	6	18:09
72	Maxim Tsyplakovfrom NJD	R	6	0	1	1	-2	3	17	1	11:11
47	Connor Zary	C	2	0	1	1	-2	2	1	0	13:37
38	Jonathan Castagna	C	5	0	1	1	0	5	9	4	11:16
44	Joel Hanley	D	1	0	0	0	-2	0	1	3	16:18
18	Ben Jonesfrom MIN	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Samuel Honzek	L	4	0	0	0	-4	3	11	2	15:38
28	Zach Whitecloud	D	8	0	0	0	-5	7	13	17	20:39
78	Brennan Othmann	L	2	0	0	0	0	2	5	1	10:42

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Mikael Backlund	37	3.1	1	-2.1
Yegor Sharangovich	27	2.4	2	-0.4
Matt Coronato	27	2.0	2	+0.0
Joel Farabee	28	2.0	0	-2.0
Morgan Frost	22	1.9	3	+1.1
Ryan Strome	22	1.6	1	-0.6
Simon Nemec	25	1.4	0	-1.4
Aydar Suniev	12	1.2	2	+0.8

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Dustin Wolf	221	16.4	24	-7.6
Devin Cooley	148	9.5	12	-2.5