Edmonton Oilers

Pacific Division · Western Conference · 6–1–1, 13 pts in 8 games · GF 37, GA 24 (+13) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	48	50

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 93–104 points (middle half of seasons; median 98, 10th–90th percentile 88–109). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (73.0% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (71.1%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

EDM median 98

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

EDM's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfEDM's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ UTA	6–2	W	56.0
Oct 15	vs UTA	2–4	L	56.0
Oct 13	@ LAK	4–1	W	38.8
Oct 10	@ SJS	3–1	W	45.1
Oct 7	@ ANA	5–2	W	50.1
Oct 3	vs SEA	3–1	W	47.4
Oct 1	@ VAN	9–7	W	32.5
Sep 29	vs VAN	5–6 OT	OTL	32.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs MIN	52	1.16	57.9
Thu Oct 22	vs CAR	48	1.09	61.7
Sat Oct 24	vs TOR	67	1.42	42.3
Mon Oct 26	vs DET	63	1.36	45.9
Wed Oct 28	vs CGY	71	1.48	37.7
Sat Oct 31	@ NYI	50	1.13	50.8
Sun Nov 1	@ NYR	51	1.14	50.5
Tue Nov 3	@ NJD	53	1.18	48.0
Thu Nov 5	vs ANA	60	1.29	50.1
Sat Nov 7	vs VAN	75	1.56	32.5
Expected over these 10			12.8

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	55.7
At home	60.1
Away	51.3
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	70.4
Points %, last 10 games	81.2
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	53.3	10th
xG share, 5 on 5	52.2	13th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	48.1	20th
xG for / against per game	2.99 / 2.62
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	37 vs 23.9	+13.1
Goals against vs xG against	24 vs 21.0
Goals saved above expected		-2.6

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
97	Connor McDavid	C	8	6	17	23	+19	18	11	4	23:23
2	Evan Bouchard	D	8	6	10	16	+17	27	5	5	25:13
29	Leon Draisaitl	C	8	6	8	14	+15	28	5	2	21:03
92	Vasily Podkolzin	R	8	7	4	11	+12	22	34	4	19:14
42	Kasperi Kapanen	R	8	3	1	4	-4	12	12	4	17:32
21	Mathieu Josephfrom LAK	R	8	1	3	4	0	9	26	7	14:36
43	Owen Michaels	R	8	2	1	3	0	8	8	4	13:12
26	Alex Formenton	L	8	1	2	3	+4	9	24	7	14:39
14	Mattias Ekholm	D	8	1	2	3	+17	8	5	7	21:57
6	Ryan Sheafrom PIT	D	8	1	2	3	+2	5	6	8	22:44
53	Isaac Howard	L	8	0	2	2	0	6	3	1	9:46
85	Shakir Mukhamadullinfrom SJS	D	5	1	0	1	-5	1	5	7	11:51
10	Trent Frederic	C	8	1	0	1	0	8	20	3	10:03
18	Zach Hyman	L	2	1	0	1	+1	4	3	0	18:32
16	Jason Dickinson	C	3	0	1	1	0	2	3	3	12:12
49	Ty Emberson	D	6	0	1	1	+1	1	9	5	12:15
81	Josh Samanski	C	6	0	1	1	+1	0	1	4	7:44
5	Connor Murphy	D	8	0	1	1	0	6	5	22	21:24
96	Jake Walman	D	5	0	0	0	-2	5	0	12	15:08
34	Colton Dach	C	4	0	0	0	-4	8	12	4	14:15
46	Max Jones	L	5	0	0	0	-4	5	10	3	10:27
19	Filip Hallanderfrom PIT	C	4	0	0	0	-1	3	7	1	11:25

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Leon Draisaitl	41	4.4	6	+1.6
Vasily Podkolzin	30	4.2	7	+2.8
Connor McDavid	32	3.6	6	+2.4
Kasperi Kapanen	18	1.8	3	+1.2
Alex Formenton	13	1.3	1	-0.3
Evan Bouchard	41	1.2	6	+4.8
Trent Frederic	11	1.2	1	-0.2
Mathieu Joseph	13	1.0	1	+0.0

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Devon Levi	210	13.8	14	-0.2
Tristan Jarry	105	6.6	9	-2.4