Utah Mammoth

Central Division · Western Conference · 6–3–0, 12 pts in 9 games · GF 33, GA 27 (+6) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	50	51

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 91–102 points (middle half of seasons; median 96, 10th–90th percentile 86–107). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (62.9% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (60.2%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

UTA median 96

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

UTA's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfUTA's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	vs EDM	2–6	L	55.7
Oct 15	@ EDM	4–2	W	55.7
Oct 13	vs TOR	5–4	W	42.3
Oct 10	@ BUF	4–1	W	53.9
Oct 8	@ BOS	1–6	L	59.9
Oct 6	@ NJD	5–3	W	48.0
Oct 4	@ NYR	2–4	L	50.5
Oct 3	@ CBJ	4–1	W	47.5
Oct 1	vs CHI	6–0	W	37.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Mon Oct 19	vs PIT	61	1.32	48.5
Thu Oct 22	@ SEA	54	1.19	47.4
Sat Oct 24	vs TBL	50	1.12	60.3
Tue Oct 27	vs MIN	52	1.16	57.9
Thu Oct 29	@ PIT	53	1.17	48.5
Sun Nov 1	@ PHI	59	1.28	42.1
Tue Nov 3	@ TOR	59	1.28	42.3
Thu Nov 5	@ MTL	48	1.09	53.3
Sat Nov 7	@ OTT	47	1.06	55.0
Wed Nov 11	@ VGK	46	1.04	56.2
Expected over these 10			11.7

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	56.0
At home	60.4
Away	51.5
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	59.9
Points %, last 10 games	66.7
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	57.4	6th
xG share, 5 on 5	56.8	5th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	56.3	4th
xG for / against per game	3.48 / 2.59
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	33 vs 31.3	+1.7
Goals against vs xG against	27 vs 23.3
Goals saved above expected		-3.3

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
8	Nick Schmaltz	C	9	6	5	11	-5	28	7	4	18:20
9	Clayton Keller	R	9	3	8	11	-3	22	4	6	17:33
98	Mikhail Sergachev	D	9	3	7	10	+3	23	6	10	22:25
11	Dylan Guenther	R	9	4	5	9	-1	28	5	1	16:28
92	Logan Cooley	C	9	1	7	8	-2	9	11	6	18:09
27	Barrett Hayton	C	9	1	5	6	+5	15	2	6	13:52
6	John Marino	D	9	2	3	5	+5	8	2	4	20:22
72	Anders Leefrom NYI	L	9	2	3	5	0	17	9	6	13:18
16	Vincent Trocheckfrom NYR	C	9	2	2	4	-3	12	25	5	16:27
56	Kailer Yamamoto	R	4	1	3	4	+2	10	12	1	14:48
50	Daniil But	L	9	2	1	3	+3	10	18	4	11:00
67	Lawson Crouse	L	9	1	2	3	+1	16	27	6	14:52
20	Andrew Peekefrom BOS	D	9	1	2	3	-2	8	8	12	15:24
82	Kevin Stenlund	C	9	0	3	3	+2	6	5	8	13:51
52	MacKenzie Weegar	D	9	2	0	2	0	14	32	30	21:00
22	Jack McBain	C	9	1	1	2	+3	8	39	4	12:41
53	Michael Carcone	L	5	1	1	2	+1	17	11	0	12:29
26	Dmitri Simashev	D	9	0	2	2	0	9	12	5	14:56
88	Nate Schmidt	D	9	0	1	1	0	11	13	9	20:32
57	Nick DeSimone	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
38	Liam O'Brien	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Brandon Tanev	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Anders Lee	34	3.5	2	-1.5
Nick Schmaltz	33	3.5	6	+2.5
Dylan Guenther	47	3.3	4	+0.7
Clayton Keller	31	3.0	3	-0.0
Lawson Crouse	21	2.1	1	-1.1
Vincent Trocheck	21	1.9	2	+0.1
Logan Cooley	21	1.8	1	-0.8
Jack McBain	19	1.7	1	-0.7

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Karel Vejmelka	274	18.9	21	-2.1
Sebastian Cossa	52	3.8	5	-1.2