Chicago Blackhawks

Central Division · Western Conference · 3–6–0, 6 pts in 9 games · GF 21, GA 36 (-15) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	54	57

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 85–96 points (middle half of seasons; median 90, 10th–90th percentile 80–100). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (34.3% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (30.5%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

CHI median 90

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

CHI's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfCHI's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	vs DAL	0–4	L	57.6
Oct 15	vs WPG	4–3 OT	W	46.9
Oct 13	vs PIT	5–3	W	48.5
Oct 10	vs CAR	2–5	L	61.7
Oct 8	@ NYI	1–4	L	50.8
Oct 6	vs STL	4–2	W	46.0
Oct 3	@ BUF	3–4	L	53.9
Oct 1	@ UTA	0–6	L	56.0
Sep 29	@ VGK	2–5	L	56.2

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Fri Oct 23	vs MTL	39	0.93	53.3
Sun Oct 25	vs FLA	42	0.98	50.5
Tue Oct 27	vs LAK	53	1.18	38.8
Thu Oct 29	@ DET	38	0.91	45.9
Sat Oct 31	@ BOS	26	0.70	59.9
Mon Nov 2	vs COL	30	0.77	63.4
Wed Nov 4	@ FLA	34	0.83	50.5
Thu Nov 5	@ TBL	26	0.70	60.3
Sat Nov 7	@ CAR	25	0.68	61.7
Thu Nov 12	vs BUF	39	0.92	53.9
Expected over these 10			8.6

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	37.5
At home	41.8
Away	33.4
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	25.4
Points %, last 10 games	33.3
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	43.3	29th
xG share, 5 on 5	40.6	30th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	41.9	31st
xG for / against per game	2.65 / 3.47
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	21 vs 23.8	-2.8
Goals against vs xG against	36 vs 31.2
Goals saved above expected		-4.1

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
16	Anton Frondell	C	9	1	5	6	-3	16	8	5	17:23
59	Tyler Bertuzzi	L	9	2	3	5	-1	10	6	0	17:28
86	Teuvo Teravainen	C	7	2	3	5	+2	7	1	1	14:40
88	Patrick Kanefrom DET	R	9	1	4	5	-11	16	5	6	19:27
91	Frank Nazar	C	7	3	1	4	-5	14	3	3	18:13
80	Roman Kantserov	R	9	3	0	3	-6	12	13	2	18:28
8	Ryan Donato	C	9	2	1	3	-6	11	5	3	11:17
11	Oliver Moore	C	9	2	1	3	-2	13	5	2	11:48
55	Artyom Levshunov	D	9	1	2	3	-3	12	16	8	20:27
98	Connor Bedard	C	3	1	2	3	0	8	2	2	20:18
44	Wyatt Kaiser	D	9	0	3	3	-5	6	7	14	19:25
22	Cole Smithfrom VGK	R	9	1	1	2	+1	9	18	0	13:44
6	Sam Rinzel	D	8	1	1	2	-3	11	6	8	17:32
72	Alex Vlasic	D	9	0	2	2	0	5	3	11	20:02
20	Ryan Greene	C	9	0	2	2	+2	5	2	4	14:23
76	Nick Lardis	L	6	0	2	2	-6	6	7	3	10:57
12	Jordan Greenwayfrom BUF	L	9	1	0	1	+1	14	19	6	13:35
24	Bowen Byramfrom BUF	D	6	0	1	1	-7	5	2	9	24:42
38	Ethan Del Mastro	D	3	0	0	0	-3	3	8	4	14:30
14	Kevin Korchinski	D	1	0	0	0	-2	2	0	0	11:21
26	Andrew Mangiapane	L	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5:23
25	Dominic Toninato	C	3	0	0	0	-3	1	3	1	8:52
28	Ian Colefrom UTA	D	9	0	0	0	+2	6	9	15	16:52

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Frank Nazar	20	3.0	3	+0.0
Tyler Bertuzzi	16	1.9	2	+0.1
Anton Frondell	24	1.8	1	-0.8
Patrick Kane	31	1.7	1	-0.7
Cole Smith	12	1.7	1	-0.7
Jordan Greenway	18	1.5	1	-0.5
Roman Kantserov	17	1.5	3	+1.5
Connor Bedard	13	1.5	1	-0.5

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Spencer Knight	341	23.6	25	-1.4
Arvid Soderblom	80	6.2	9	-2.8