San Jose Sharks

Pacific Division · Western Conference · 4–3–1, 9 pts in 8 games · GF 22, GA 29 (-7) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	51	53

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 89–100 points (middle half of seasons; median 94, 10th–90th percentile 84–105). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (54.9% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (50.7%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

SJS median 94

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

SJS's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfSJS's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ DET	3–4 OT	OTL	45.9
Oct 15	@ NSH	3–2 OT	W	46.2
Oct 13	vs BOS	3–6	L	59.9
Oct 10	vs EDM	1–3	L	55.7
Oct 8	@ STL	3–2 OT	W	46.0
Oct 5	@ DAL	0–5	L	57.6
Oct 3	vs LAK	5–4 OT	W	38.8
Oct 1	vs FLA	4–3 OT	W	50.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Mon Oct 19	@ TOR	48	1.10	42.3
Tue Oct 20	@ MTL	38	0.91	53.3
Thu Oct 22	@ OTT	36	0.89	55.0
Sat Oct 24	@ BOS	32	0.81	59.9
Tue Oct 27	vs BUF	46	1.05	53.9
Thu Oct 29	vs VAN	67	1.41	32.5
Sat Oct 31	vs OTT	45	1.03	55.0
Mon Nov 2	vs CGY	62	1.32	37.7
Wed Nov 4	@ LAK	52	1.16	38.8
Fri Nov 6	@ MIN	34	0.84	57.9
Expected over these 10			10.5

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	45.1
At home	49.6
Away	40.7
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	36.5
Points %, last 10 games	56.2
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	43.0	30th
xG share, 5 on 5	41.0	29th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	48.1	21st
xG for / against per game	2.81 / 3.73
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	21 vs 22.5	-1.5
Goals against vs xG against	28 vs 29.8
Goals saved above expected		+1.6

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
71	Macklin Celebrini	C	6	3	8	11	+2	26	4	5	22:50
2	Will Smith	C	8	3	3	6	-3	20	3	4	19:51
41	Ivar Stenberg	L	8	2	4	6	-6	11	2	2	15:50
73	Tyler Toffoli	C	8	2	3	5	0	20	5	2	12:56
92	Igor Chernyshov	L	8	2	2	4	+1	8	3	4	13:55
65	Jacob Troubafrom ANA	D	8	1	2	3	-6	13	14	17	21:50
9	Dmitry Orlov	D	8	1	2	3	-6	6	12	10	18:47
21	Alexander Wennberg	C	8	0	3	3	-3	14	1	7	20:26
77	Michael Misa	C	8	0	3	3	-3	6	4	2	13:16
27	Mason Marchmentfrom CBJ	L	8	2	0	2	-5	15	15	4	16:02
44	Kiefer Sherwood	L	8	1	1	2	-4	11	46	3	15:08
42	Luca Cagnoni	D	7	1	1	2	-3	11	1	8	18:37
7	Michael Kesselringfrom BUF	D	8	0	2	2	-1	7	6	6	19:33
25	Darnell Nursefrom EDM	D	7	1	0	1	-1	17	9	13	20:44
51	Collin Graf	R	8	1	0	1	-4	8	11	5	14:37
5	Nolan Allan	D	4	1	0	1	+2	3	6	5	16:36
6	Sam Dickinson	D	6	0	1	1	-5	4	13	8	18:22
23	Barclay Goodrow	C	8	0	0	0	-1	10	24	5	11:55
63	Zack Ostapchuk	C	8	0	0	0	0	10	24	8	10:45
10	Ty Dellandrea	C	2	0	0	0	-2	1	4	2	13:25

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Will Smith	32	3.5	3	-0.5
Macklin Celebrini	38	3.0	3	+0.0
Alexander Wennberg	17	2.4	0	-2.4
Tyler Toffoli	23	1.8	2	+0.2
Ivar Stenberg	18	1.8	2	+0.2
Kiefer Sherwood	19	1.6	1	-0.6
Collin Graf	12	1.4	1	-0.4
Mason Marchment	19	1.3	2	+0.7

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Yaroslav Askarov	222	17.8	20	-2.2
Alex Nedeljkovic	140	10.8	7	+3.8