Colorado Avalanche

Central Division · Western Conference · 5–2–1, 11 pts in 8 games · GF 36, GA 24 (+12) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	50	51

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 91–102 points (middle half of seasons; median 96, 10th–90th percentile 86–107). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (63.8% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (60.7%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

COL median 96

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

COL's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfCOL's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 16	vs PIT	5–2	W	48.5
Oct 14	vs DAL	2–3 OT	OTL	57.6
Oct 13	@ DAL	3–2	W	57.6
Oct 10	vs TOR	3–6	L	42.3
Oct 8	@ CGY	7–3	W	37.7
Oct 7	@ WPG	2–3	L	46.9
Oct 3	vs STL	6–1	W	46.0
Sep 30	vs LAK	8–4	W	38.8

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Mon Oct 19	@ PHI	66	1.40	42.1
Tue Oct 20	@ NJD	61	1.31	48.0
Fri Oct 23	vs TBL	57	1.25	60.3
Sun Oct 25	@ NSH	62	1.34	46.2
Wed Oct 28	vs NJD	69	1.45	48.0
Sat Oct 31	vs CGY	77	1.59	37.7
Mon Nov 2	@ CHI	70	1.47	37.5
Tue Nov 3	@ CBJ	61	1.32	47.5
Thu Nov 5	vs NSH	70	1.47	46.2
Sat Nov 7	vs DET	70	1.48	45.9
Expected over these 10			14.1

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	63.4
At home	67.5
Away	59.2
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	69.2
Points %, last 10 games	68.8
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	60.4	2nd
xG share, 5 on 5	57.5	4th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	51.8	15th
xG for / against per game	3.69 / 2.42
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	36 vs 29.5	+6.5
Goals against vs xG against	23 vs 19.4
Goals saved above expected		-3.3

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
29	Nathan MacKinnon	C	8	6	10	16	+4	38	2	2	20:53
88	Martin Necas	C	8	4	6	10	+3	18	6	1	20:54
8	Cale Makar	D	7	3	6	9	+5	17	2	9	21:48
62	Artturi Lehkonen	L	8	6	2	8	+8	12	10	8	19:16
11	Brock Nelson	C	8	3	4	7	+1	15	4	7	18:35
71	Jaden Schwartzfrom SEA	L	8	3	3	6	+1	14	6	3	13:12
7	Devon Toews	D	8	2	4	6	+8	11	5	5	21:10
91	Nazem Kadri	C	8	0	6	6	+5	24	3	4	20:04
92	Gabriel Landeskog	L	8	3	2	5	-1	11	13	6	15:52
17	Parker Kelly	C	8	1	4	5	+1	6	14	5	12:29
10	Nicolas Roy	C	6	2	2	4	0	10	9	4	11:41
42	Josh Manson	D	8	1	3	4	+5	9	18	13	16:19
27	Brett Kulak	D	8	0	4	4	+1	5	3	16	18:17
9	Fedor Svechkovfrom NSH	C	8	1	2	3	+4	9	2	6	13:33
84	Brent Burns	D	8	0	3	3	-1	10	3	6	16:13
13	T.J. Hughes	R	8	1	1	2	0	17	8	3	14:29
47	Noah Juulsenfrom PHI	D	6	0	1	1	+1	3	12	8	11:11
70	Sam Malinski	D	7	0	1	1	+5	8	2	8	16:41
68	Zachary L'Heureux	L	4	0	1	1	-1	6	10	1	6:48
54	Gavin Brindley	C	2	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	7:42
18	Vinnie Hinostrozafrom FLA	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Nathan MacKinnon	51	4.1	6	+1.9
Artturi Lehkonen	23	3.7	6	+2.3
Nazem Kadri	31	3.2	0	-3.2
Brock Nelson	20	2.8	3	+0.2
Martin Necas	25	2.2	4	+1.8
Gabriel Landeskog	18	2.2	3	+0.8
Nicolas Roy	16	1.8	2	+0.2
T.J. Hughes	23	1.8	1	-0.8

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood	240	14.3	17	-2.7
Scott Wedgewood	78	4.4	5	-0.6