Minnesota Wild

Central Division · Western Conference · 6–2–1, 13 pts in 9 games · GF 28, GA 21 (+7) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	49	51

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 92–103 points (middle half of seasons; median 97, 10th–90th percentile 87–108). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (67.9% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (65.2%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

MIN median 97

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

MIN's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfMIN's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 18	vs CBJ	2–1	W	47.5
Oct 15	vs STL	5–4	W	46.0
Oct 13	@ WPG	2–5	L	46.9
Oct 12	vs VGK	4–2	W	56.2
Oct 10	@ FLA	4–1	W	50.5
Oct 8	@ TBL	2–3	L	60.3
Oct 6	@ BUF	2–3 OT	OTL	53.9
Oct 3	vs BOS	4–1	W	59.9
Oct 1	@ NSH	3–1	W	46.2

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	@ EDM	48	1.08	55.7
Thu Oct 22	@ CGY	65	1.38	37.7
Sat Oct 24	@ SEA	56	1.23	47.4
Sun Oct 25	@ VAN	70	1.47	32.5
Tue Oct 27	@ UTA	48	1.08	56.0
Thu Oct 29	vs NYI	61	1.32	50.8
Sun Nov 1	@ WSH	48	1.09	55.3
Tue Nov 3	@ PHI	61	1.31	42.1
Fri Nov 6	vs SJS	66	1.41	45.1
Sat Nov 7	vs TBL	52	1.16	60.3
Expected over these 10			12.5

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	57.9
At home	62.3
Away	53.5
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	64.0
Points %, last 10 games	72.2
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	57.4	5th
xG share, 5 on 5	54.1	9th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	52.5	10th
xG for / against per game	3.60 / 2.67
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	28 vs 32.4	-4.4
Goals against vs xG against	21 vs 24.1
Goals saved above expected		+3.1

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
97	Kirill Kaprizov	L	9	10	5	15	+6	30	2	3	21:27
43	Quinn Hughes	D	9	2	10	12	+2	27	1	4	26:34
12	Matt Boldy	L	9	5	2	7	+6	41	9	8	21:38
49	Maxim Shabanovfrom NYI	R	9	2	4	6	-4	10	6	5	15:00
14	Joel Eriksson Ek	C	9	1	5	6	+6	25	14	4	20:14
22	Danila Yurov	R	9	4	1	5	0	15	11	5	13:30
46	Jared Spurgeon	D	6	1	4	5	+4	7	5	14	22:21
10	Bobby Brink	R	9	0	4	4	-2	13	5	5	12:49
47	Michael McCarron	C	9	0	4	4	+3	12	27	11	13:40
20	Blake Colemanfrom CGY	L	9	2	1	3	-4	18	18	6	15:47
3	Olli Maattafrom CGY	D	6	0	2	2	+2	3	0	9	21:23
13	Yakov Trenin	C	9	0	2	2	-2	10	38	3	12:58
71	Nick Foligno	L	3	1	0	1	+2	3	0	0	9:57
61	Rieger Lorenz	L	5	0	1	1	-3	2	5	3	8:38
25	Jonas Brodin	D	9	0	1	1	-1	8	6	22	21:47
38	Ryan Hartman	R	9	0	1	1	-7	8	12	5	13:20
82	David Spacek	D	5	0	0	0	-1	7	4	6	13:32
48	Daemon Hunt	D	9	0	0	0	-4	4	4	7	13:29
17	Marcus Foligno	L	4	0	0	0	+4	4	13	0	12:09
19	Tyler Pitlick	C	3	0	0	0	-2	4	11	5	7:53
78	Nico Sturm	C	3	0	0	0	0	2	5	1	9:02
26	Matt Kiersted	D	2	0	0	0	+2	3	0	2	12:19
24	Zach Bogosian	D	8	0	0	0	0	10	4	4	16:57

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Kirill Kaprizov	56	7.1	10	+2.9
Matt Boldy	63	5.4	5	-0.4
Joel Eriksson Ek	40	4.7	1	-3.7
Maxim Shabanov	19	1.9	2	+0.1
Blake Coleman	25	1.9	2	+0.1
Danila Yurov	20	1.8	4	+2.2
Quinn Hughes	38	1.6	2	+0.4
Ryan Hartman	18	1.3	0	-1.3

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt	318	21.3	16	+5.3
Calvin Pickard	39	2.7	5	-2.3