Vegas Golden Knights

Pacific Division · Western Conference · 8–2–0, 16 pts in 10 games · GF 42, GA 24 (+18) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	48	49

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 94–105 points (middle half of seasons; median 99, 10th–90th percentile 89–109). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (76.6% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (74.3%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

VGK median 99

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

VGK's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfVGK's median

Last 10 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	vs PIT	6–2	W	48.5
Oct 15	vs CGY	6–2	W	37.7
Oct 13	@ NSH	5–2	W	46.2
Oct 12	@ MIN	2–4	L	57.9
Oct 10	vs LAK	2–1 OT	W	38.8
Oct 8	vs TOR	4–3 OT	W	42.3
Oct 6	@ SEA	6–2	W	47.4
Oct 4	@ VAN	3–2	W	32.5
Oct 2	vs ANA	3–4	L	50.1
Sep 29	vs CHI	5–2	W	37.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs TBL	50	1.13	60.3
Thu Oct 22	@ STL	55	1.22	46.0
Sat Oct 24	@ CBJ	54	1.19	47.5
Tue Oct 27	vs OTT	55	1.22	55.0
Fri Oct 30	vs NJD	62	1.33	48.0
Mon Nov 2	@ BOS	42	0.98	59.9
Tue Nov 3	@ PIT	53	1.18	48.5
Thu Nov 5	@ DET	56	1.22	45.9
Sun Nov 8	@ BUF	48	1.09	53.9
Wed Nov 11	vs UTA	54	1.20	56.0
Expected over these 10			11.7

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 10 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	56.2
At home	60.5
Away	51.7
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	75.4
Points %, last 10 games	80.0
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	57.2	7th
xG share, 5 on 5	54.5	7th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	52.7	9th
xG for / against per game	3.51 / 2.62
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	41 vs 35.1	+5.9
Goals against vs xG against	24 vs 26.2
Goals saved above expected		+2.2

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
9	Jack Eichel	C	10	5	13	18	+8	28	3	6	19:55
61	Mark Stone	R	10	7	7	14	+9	20	11	7	18:09
93	Mitch Marner	R	10	2	9	11	0	23	6	7	19:55
24	Trevor Connelly	L	10	4	3	7	-1	20	4	2	13:44
21	Brett Howden	C	10	4	3	7	+7	16	10	4	15:39
48	Tomas Hertl	C	10	4	3	7	+2	23	23	5	16:08
49	Ivan Barbashev	L	10	0	7	7	+8	14	18	3	15:53
3	Brayden McNabb	D	10	0	6	6	+14	9	13	11	18:34
95	Victor Olofssonfrom CGY	L	4	4	1	5	+1	9	0	1	13:08
4	Rasmus Andersson	D	10	2	3	5	-2	21	2	9	18:46
15	Noah Hanifin	D	10	2	2	4	+1	13	1	19	20:11
27	Shea Theodore	D	10	2	2	4	+12	20	0	12	21:25
71	William Karlsson	C	10	2	2	4	+1	17	0	6	17:23
42	Braeden Bowman	R	10	2	1	3	-4	11	4	3	13:39
17	Marc Gatcombfrom NYI	C	10	1	1	2	-2	19	32	3	10:50
26	Nic Dowd	C	10	0	2	2	-2	4	16	6	12:19
36	Raphael Lavoie	C	6	0	2	2	+2	6	8	0	10:58
52	Dylan Coghlan	D	4	0	1	1	+4	6	4	5	14:52
5	Jeremy Lauzon	D	10	0	0	0	+6	13	38	13	17:08
29	Parker Wotherspoonfrom PIT	D	6	0	0	0	-6	5	5	5	18:15
14	Ville Heinolafrom WPG	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Mark Stone	31	4.6	7	+2.4
Tomas Hertl	37	4.6	4	-0.6
Brett Howden	28	3.4	4	+0.6
Jack Eichel	35	3.0	5	+2.0
William Karlsson	31	2.7	2	-0.7
Trevor Connelly	29	2.6	4	+1.4
Mitch Marner	31	2.5	2	-0.5
Braeden Bowman	16	1.9	2	+0.1

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Carter Hart	243	15.6	14	+1.6
Adin Hill	143	9.6	9	+0.6