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Vancouver Canucks

Pacific Division · Western Conference · 2–7–1, 5 pts in 10 games · GF 30, GA 45 (-15) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50%Need 75% 95%
88 2.6 4.9 7.1 8.2 77.1 22.9 2.9 1.5 55 56 58

Playoff race, Western Conference

Record Goals Last 10 Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
Seed# Div Team GP W L OT Pts RW GF GA +/− Results W–L–OT PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50% 95% Next
Central
1 C Minnesota WildMIN 9 6 2 1 13 6 28 21 +7 6–2–1 97 19.6 16.3 14.7 14.6 34.8 65.2 8.2 4.2 48 51 @ EDM Oct 20
2 C Utah MammothUTA 9 6 3 0 12 6 33 27 +6 6–3–0 96 16.6 15.1 13.9 14.6 39.8 60.2 7.6 3.8 48 51 vs PIT Oct 19
3 C Colorado AvalancheCOL 8 5 2 1 11 5 36 24 +12 5–2–1 96 16.6 15.1 14.1 15.0 39.3 60.7 7.7 3.9 49 51 @ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1 P Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 10 8 2 0 16 6 42 24 +18 8–2–0 99 27.6 20.3 15.8 10.7 25.7 74.3 9.3 4.8 46 49 vs TBL Oct 20
2 P Edmonton OilersEDM 8 6 1 1 13 6 37 24 +13 6–1–1 98 24.7 19.7 15.7 11.0 28.9 71.1 8.8 4.4 47 50 vs MIN Oct 20
3 P Seattle KrakenSEA 9 5 3 1 11 4 35 31 +4 5–3–1 95 13.8 15.0 15.1 12.3 43.8 56.2 6.8 3.4 49 52 vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1 C Winnipeg JetsWPG 8 4 2 2 10 4 23 24 -1 4–2–2 95 13.6 13.8 13.3 14.9 44.4 55.6 6.8 3.3 50 52 @ STL Oct 20
2 C Dallas StarsDAL 8 4 3 1 9 3 20 13 +7 4–3–1 94 11.0 11.9 12.6 14.9 49.6 50.4 6.3 3.1 51 54 vs BOS Oct 20
C Nashville PredatorsNSH 8 3 2 3 9 3 23 24 -1 3–2–3 94 11.1 12.2 12.6 14.7 49.4 50.6 6.4 3.2 51 54 @ BOS Oct 22
P San Jose SharksSJS 8 4 3 1 9 0 22 29 -7 4–3–1 94 11.2 13.1 14.2 12.3 49.3 50.7 6.2 3.1 51 53 @ TOR Oct 19
P Anaheim DucksANA 7 4 3 0 8 3 22 21 +1 4–3–0 94 12.1 14.0 14.5 12.2 47.2 52.8 6.6 3.3 50 53 @ NYR Oct 19
C St. Louis BluesSTL 8 3 4 1 7 3 27 28 -1 3–4–1 92 7.2 9.3 10.7 13.8 59.0 41.0 5.1 2.6 52 55 vs WPG Oct 20
C Chicago BlackhawksCHI 9 3 6 0 6 2 21 36 -15 3–6–0 90 4.4 6.3 8.2 11.7 69.5 30.5 3.8 1.9 54 57 vs MTL Oct 23
P Vancouver CanucksVAN 10 2 7 1 5 1 30 45 -15 2–7–1 88 2.6 4.9 7.1 8.2 77.1 22.9 2.9 1.5 55 58 vs CAR Oct 20
P Calgary FlamesCGY 8 2 6 0 4 2 17 37 -20 2–6–0 89 3.9 6.5 8.8 9.6 71.2 28.8 3.6 1.8 54 57 vs MIN Oct 22
P Los Angeles KingsLAK 6 0 4 2 2 0 12 25 -13 0–4–2 89 4.0 6.6 8.8 9.5 71.1 28.9 3.7 1.8 54 56 @ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 83–93 points (middle half of seasons; median 88, 10th–90th percentile 78–98). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (25.4% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (22.9%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

Last 10 games

Date Opponent Score Opp str
Oct 17 @ TBL 2–4 L 60.3
Oct 15 @ FLA 2–3 OT OTL 50.5
Oct 13 @ NYI 2–3 L 50.8
Oct 11 @ NYR 2–6 L 50.5
Oct 10 @ NJD 1–4 L 48.0
Oct 8 @ CAR 2–7 L 61.7
Oct 4 vs VGK 2–3 L 56.2
Oct 3 vs CGY 4–1 W 37.7
Oct 1 vs EDM 7–9 L 55.7
Sep 29 @ EDM 6–5 OT W 55.7

Next 10 games

Date Opponent Win % Exp pts Opp str
Tue Oct 20 vs CAR 27 0.72 61.7
Thu Oct 22 vs DET 41 0.96 45.9
Sun Oct 25 vs MIN 30 0.78 57.9
Tue Oct 27 @ ANA 29 0.76 50.1
Thu Oct 29 @ SJS 33 0.83 45.1
Sat Oct 31 vs TOR 44 1.02 42.3
Tue Nov 3 vs ANA 37 0.89 50.1
Thu Nov 5 @ WPG 32 0.81 46.9
Sat Nov 7 @ EDM 25 0.68 55.7
Mon Nov 9 vs PHI 44 1.03 42.1
Expected over these 108.5

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 10 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice32.5
At home36.6
Away28.7
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against30.8
Points %, last 10 games25.0
Shot qualityRank
xG share, all situations38.731st
xG share, 5 on 538.731st
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)42.329th
xG for / against per game2.38 / 3.77
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)30 vs 23.8+6.2
Goals against vs xG against45 vs 37.7
Goals saved above expected-8.8

Skaters

# Player Pos GP G A Pts +/− SOG Hit Blk TOI
40 Elias Pettersson C 10 3 7 10 -1 16 30 10 19:32
47 Paul Cotterfrom NJD L 10 4 3 7 +4 9 33 1 15:21
6 Brock Boeser R 10 2 5 7 -5 13 8 4 18:29
94 Linus Karlsson C 10 2 5 7 -1 19 1 2 14:11
88 Jonathan Lekkerimäki R 10 2 4 6 0 13 6 3 14:04
17 Filip Hronek D 10 0 6 6 -6 11 14 30 25:26
74 Jake DeBrusk L 8 3 2 5 -3 20 6 3 16:16
92 Liam Ohgren L 10 2 3 5 -3 13 8 4 15:16
23 Marco Rossi C 9 3 1 4 -3 16 15 4 16:45
4 Jamie Oleksiakfrom SEA D 9 1 3 4 -4 5 16 15 17:46
25 Elias Pettersson D 10 3 0 3 +3 11 21 17 18:18
63 Max Sasson C 10 2 1 3 -5 11 3 12 13:06
18 Drew O'Connor L 10 1 2 3 -8 10 17 9 15:42
13 Arshdeep Bains L 8 1 2 3 -1 5 6 6 11:20
5 Tom Willander D 10 0 3 3 +1 7 6 10 21:03
77 Filip Chytil C 2 0 2 2 +1 2 2 2 19:30
2 Luke Schennfrom BUF D 7 0 2 2 -1 5 20 8 12:56
54 Aatu Räty C 4 1 0 1 -2 4 8 0 10:09
7 Brendan Gallagherfrom MTL R 9 0 1 1 -2 10 15 5 10:37
8 Zeev Buium D 10 0 1 1 -6 8 1 9 21:09
90 Victor Mancini D 3 0 0 0 +1 0 3 3 13:04
55 Guillaume Brisebois D 1 0 0 0 -3 2 2 1 12:44

Shooters by expected goals

ShooterShotsxGGG − xG
Jake DeBrusk253.13-0.1
Liam Ohgren252.12-0.1
Brendan Gallagher221.90-1.9
Elias Pettersson241.83+1.2
Linus Karlsson251.82+0.2
Marco Rossi201.63+1.4
Brock Boeser211.52+0.5
Jonathan Lekkerimäki171.52+0.5

Goalies

GoalieShotsxGAGAGSAx
Kevin Lankinen24221.733-11.3
Leevi Meriläinen21614.612+2.6