Dallas Stars

Central Division · Western Conference · 4–3–1, 9 pts in 8 games · GF 20, GA 13 (+7) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	51	54

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 89–100 points (middle half of seasons; median 94, 10th–90th percentile 84–105). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (54.3% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (50.4%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

DAL median 94

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

DAL's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfDAL's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ CHI	4–0	W	37.5
Oct 14	@ COL	3–2 OT	W	63.4
Oct 13	vs COL	2–3	L	63.4
Oct 10	@ PIT	1–2 OT	OTL	48.5
Oct 8	@ BUF	4–0	W	53.9
Oct 5	vs SJS	5–0	W	45.1
Oct 3	@ NSH	1–2	L	46.2
Oct 2	vs STL	0–4	L	46.0

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs BOS	52	1.16	59.9
Thu Oct 22	vs WPG	64	1.37	46.9
Sun Oct 25	vs NYI	61	1.31	50.8
Tue Oct 27	vs NJD	63	1.36	48.0
Thu Oct 29	vs MTL	58	1.27	53.3
Sat Oct 31	vs CBJ	64	1.36	47.5
Tue Nov 3	@ WSH	48	1.09	55.3
Thu Nov 5	@ CBJ	55	1.22	47.5
Sat Nov 7	vs SJS	66	1.40	45.1
Thu Nov 12	vs WPG	64	1.37	46.9
Expected over these 10			12.9

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	57.6
At home	61.9
Away	53.1
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	70.3
Points %, last 10 games	56.2
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	50.6	11th
xG share, 5 on 5	48.0	20th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	49.9	17th
xG for / against per game	2.67 / 2.61
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	19 vs 21.4	-2.4
Goals against vs xG against	12 vs 20.9
Goals saved above expected		+9.4

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
96	Mikko Rantanen	R	8	2	6	8	+4	15	8	3	20:43
21	Jason Robertson	L	8	3	4	7	+3	26	9	1	19:40
4	Miro Heiskanen	D	8	3	3	6	+5	13	4	11	25:10
24	Roope Hintz	C	8	3	2	5	+4	16	13	4	16:57
91	Tyler Seguin	C	8	2	2	4	-2	23	5	1	15:16
53	Wyatt Johnston	C	6	0	4	4	+2	16	4	4	19:58
25	Arttu Hyry	R	8	3	0	3	+2	13	21	4	13:50
18	Sam Steel	C	8	1	2	3	+3	11	7	3	16:08
55	Thomas Harley	D	8	0	3	3	+4	13	8	14	23:51
14	Jamie Benn	L	8	1	1	2	+1	11	11	1	12:27
5	Nils Lundkvist	D	8	0	2	2	+1	6	4	10	17:24
22	Joel Kivirantafrom COL	L	4	1	0	1	+2	4	8	2	11:51
10	Oskar Bäck	C	7	0	1	1	0	4	5	9	11:24
12	Radek Faksa	C	8	0	1	1	+1	7	9	9	11:08
15	Colin Blackwell	C	6	0	0	0	-1	7	13	0	10:02
20	Kyle Capobianco	D	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2:59
6	Lian Bichsel	D	8	0	0	0	-1	3	22	15	15:29
23	Esa Lindell	D	8	0	0	0	+4	4	5	18	20:48
16	David Perronfrom DET	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
57	Tyler Myers	D	8	0	0	0	+1	3	7	14	14:27
49	Justin Hryckowian	C	8	0	0	0	0	9	15	3	15:02

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Jason Robertson	38	3.1	3	-0.1
Wyatt Johnston	24	2.7	0	-2.7
Roope Hintz	27	2.6	3	+0.4
Tyler Seguin	35	2.3	2	-0.3
Mikko Rantanen	21	1.6	2	+0.4
Arttu Hyry	22	1.4	3	+1.6
Sam Steel	18	1.3	1	-0.3
Jamie Benn	17	1.0	1	-0.0

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Jake Oettinger	206	14.8	6	+8.8
Casey DeSmith	81	4.6	4	+0.6