St. Louis Blues

Central Division · Western Conference · 3–4–1, 7 pts in 8 games · GF 27, GA 28 (-1) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	53	55

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 87–98 points (middle half of seasons; median 92, 10th–90th percentile 82–103). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (44.5% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (41.0%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

STL median 92

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

STL's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfSTL's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ NSH	2–5	L	46.2
Oct 15	@ MIN	4–5	L	57.9
Oct 13	@ OTT	7–2	W	55.0
Oct 10	vs CBJ	5–3	W	47.5
Oct 8	vs SJS	2–3 OT	OTL	45.1
Oct 6	@ CHI	2–4	L	37.5
Oct 3	@ COL	1–6	L	63.4
Oct 2	@ DAL	4–0	W	57.6

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs WPG	53	1.18	46.9
Thu Oct 22	vs VGK	45	1.03	56.2
Sat Oct 24	vs CAR	39	0.93	61.7
Tue Oct 27	vs MTL	47	1.07	53.3
Thu Oct 29	vs BOS	41	0.96	59.9
Sat Oct 31	@ DET	46	1.05	45.9
Tue Nov 3	@ NYR	41	0.97	50.5
Thu Nov 5	@ NJD	44	1.01	48.0
Sat Nov 7	@ NSH	46	1.04	46.2
Tue Nov 10	vs DET	54	1.20	45.9
Expected over these 10			10.5

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	46.0
At home	50.5
Away	41.6
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	48.2
Points %, last 10 games	43.8
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	49.7	16th
xG share, 5 on 5	51.2	14th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	52.3	12th
xG for / against per game	3.02 / 3.06
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	27 vs 24.2	+2.8
Goals against vs xG against	28 vs 24.5
Goals saved above expected		-4.4

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
83	Mason McTavishfrom ANA	C	8	5	4	9	+1	29	11	2	16:01
22	Pius Suter	C	8	3	3	6	+4	12	12	1	14:07
77	Connor McMichaelfrom WSH	L	8	2	4	6	-4	11	2	2	16:21
81	Dylan Holloway	L	8	1	5	6	-4	14	19	5	17:58
21	Jimmy Snuggerud	R	8	4	1	5	+1	20	7	3	17:38
89	Pavel Buchnevich	L	7	1	4	5	+2	9	3	3	17:44
63	Jake Neighbours	L	8	3	1	4	+1	10	26	4	14:36
29	Jonatan Berggren	R	8	2	2	4	-2	10	4	0	15:09
18	Robert Thomas	C	8	1	3	4	0	9	3	5	20:15
6	Philip Broberg	D	8	1	3	4	-1	13	3	8	22:54
55	Colton Parayko	D	8	0	4	4	0	12	6	18	21:20
17	Cam Fowler	D	8	0	4	4	-1	11	0	7	21:59
15	Dalibor Dvorsky	R	8	2	1	3	0	13	3	0	12:37
65	Dillon Dube	C	3	1	0	1	-1	1	3	0	11:31
36	Adam Jiricek	D	8	1	0	1	+3	14	6	8	15:42
72	Justin Barron	D	5	0	1	1	+2	8	3	10	15:28
25	Brandon Carlofrom TOR	D	8	0	1	1	-2	4	11	8	16:55
4	Theo Lindstein	D	4	0	1	1	0	3	1	2	14:32
49	Ross Johnstonfrom ANA	L	6	0	1	1	0	3	27	4	8:20
4	Justin Hollfrom WSHto WSH	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
52	Zach Dean	C	3	0	0	0	-4	0	5	0	9:45
32	Dylan Peterson	C	3	0	0	0	-1	1	9	0	8:47
13	Alexey Toropchenko	R	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	5:08

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Mason McTavish	40	4.8	5	+0.2
Jimmy Snuggerud	32	3.0	4	+1.0
Pavel Buchnevich	16	1.9	1	-0.9
Robert Thomas	14	1.7	1	-0.7
Dalibor Dvorsky	16	1.6	2	+0.4
Pius Suter	16	1.5	3	+1.5
Connor McMichael	19	1.5	2	+0.5
Dylan Holloway	19	1.4	1	-0.4

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Joel Hofer	192	12.6	12	+0.6
Jordan Binnington	127	9.0	14	-5.0