Seattle Kraken

Pacific Division · Western Conference · 5–3–1, 11 pts in 9 games · GF 35, GA 31 (+4) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	51	52

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 90–101 points (middle half of seasons; median 95, 10th–90th percentile 85–106). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (59.1% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (56.2%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

SEA median 95

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

SEA's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfSEA's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ FLA	3–8	L	50.5
Oct 15	@ TBL	3–4 OT	OTL	60.3
Oct 13	@ PHI	3–2 OT	W	42.1
Oct 11	@ WSH	5–3	W	55.3
Oct 9	@ DET	6–3	W	45.9
Oct 6	vs VGK	2–6	L	56.2
Oct 4	vs CGY	6–1	W	37.7
Oct 3	@ EDM	1–3	L	55.7
Oct 1	@ CGY	6–1	W	37.7

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs DET	56	1.22	45.9
Thu Oct 22	vs UTA	46	1.05	56.0
Sat Oct 24	vs MIN	44	1.02	57.9
Wed Oct 28	vs TOR	59	1.28	42.3
Fri Oct 30	@ CGY	55	1.21	37.7
Wed Nov 4	vs CGY	64	1.36	37.7
Sat Nov 7	vs NYR	51	1.15	50.5
Thu Nov 12	vs CAR	40	0.95	61.7
Sat Nov 14	@ CAR	32	0.81	61.7
Thu Nov 19	vs VAN	68	1.45	32.5
Expected over these 10			11.5

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	47.4
At home	51.8
Away	42.9
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	56.0
Points %, last 10 games	61.1
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	47.0	22nd
xG share, 5 on 5	45.8	26th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	42.0	30th
xG for / against per game	3.06 / 3.45
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	34 vs 27.5	+6.5
Goals against vs xG against	31 vs 31.0
Goals saved above expected		+0.7

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
19	Jared McCann	L	9	3	5	8	+4	26	4	1	15:57
84	Kaapo Kakko	R	9	2	6	8	+2	8	6	3	14:03
9	Chandler Stephenson	C	9	1	7	8	-5	6	0	2	17:12
89	Frederick Gaudreau	C	9	5	2	7	+3	11	4	10	15:14
7	Jordan Eberle	R	9	3	4	7	-6	19	9	10	16:17
29	Vince Dunn	D	9	2	5	7	-1	16	4	13	23:07
26	Ryan Winterton	C	9	2	4	6	+5	16	4	8	13:29
27	Berkly Catton	C	9	2	4	6	+1	16	4	4	14:53
59	Ben Meyers	C	7	1	4	5	+5	5	12	6	12:37
62	Brandon Montour	D	8	0	5	5	0	13	7	13	22:28
51	Shane Wright	C	9	3	1	4	0	17	3	10	13:51
11	Mackie Samoskevichfrom FLA	R	8	3	1	4	+2	12	7	4	15:22
74	Bobby McMann	C	9	3	1	4	-5	25	18	6	16:25
10	Matty Beniers	C	9	2	2	4	+3	10	8	5	17:16
41	Ryker Evans	D	9	1	3	4	0	8	16	10	22:35
6	Adam Larsson	D	9	0	2	2	+4	10	17	23	22:03
28	Josh Mahura	D	6	0	2	2	+1	4	8	7	14:26
46	Ville Ottavainen	D	6	1	0	1	+3	7	3	5	12:46
8	Cale Fleury	D	3	0	1	1	-2	4	8	6	15:09
42	Curtis Douglasfrom VAN	C	2	0	0	0	0	1	9	2	6:52
55	Ryan Lindgren	D	4	0	0	0	+3	3	1	4	12:44
63	Jacob Melanson	R	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	1	9:31

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Jared McCann	38	3.7	3	-0.7
Jordan Eberle	28	3.1	3	-0.1
Bobby McMann	40	2.9	3	+0.1
Shane Wright	25	2.7	3	+0.3
Berkly Catton	24	2.2	2	-0.2
Ryan Winterton	23	2.1	2	-0.1
Matty Beniers	19	1.6	2	+0.4
Mackie Samoskevich	15	1.4	3	+1.6

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Joey Daccord	236	14.8	18	-3.2
Philipp Grubauer	195	15.9	12	+3.9