Anaheim Ducks

Pacific Division · Western Conference · 4–3–0, 8 pts in 7 games · GF 22, GA 21 (+1) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	51	53

Playoff race, Western Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Central
1	C	Minnesota WildMIN	9	6	2	1	13	6	28	21	+7		6–2–1	97	19.6	16.3	14.7	14.6	34.8	65.2	8.2	4.2	48	51	@ EDM Oct 20
2	C	Utah MammothUTA	9	6	3	0	12	6	33	27	+6		6–3–0	96	16.6	15.1	13.9	14.6	39.8	60.2	7.6	3.8	48	51	vs PIT Oct 19
3	C	Colorado AvalancheCOL	8	5	2	1	11	5	36	24	+12		5–2–1	96	16.6	15.1	14.1	15.0	39.3	60.7	7.7	3.9	49	51	@ PHI Oct 19
Pacific
1	P	Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	10	8	2	0	16	6	42	24	+18		8–2–0	99	27.6	20.3	15.8	10.7	25.7	74.3	9.3	4.8	46	49	vs TBL Oct 20
2	P	Edmonton OilersEDM	8	6	1	1	13	6	37	24	+13		6–1–1	98	24.7	19.7	15.7	11.0	28.9	71.1	8.8	4.4	47	50	vs MIN Oct 20
3	P	Seattle KrakenSEA	9	5	3	1	11	4	35	31	+4		5–3–1	95	13.8	15.0	15.1	12.3	43.8	56.2	6.8	3.4	49	52	vs DET Oct 20
Wild Card
1	C	Winnipeg JetsWPG	8	4	2	2	10	4	23	24	-1		4–2–2	95	13.6	13.8	13.3	14.9	44.4	55.6	6.8	3.3	50	52	@ STL Oct 20
2	C	Dallas StarsDAL	8	4	3	1	9	3	20	13	+7		4–3–1	94	11.0	11.9	12.6	14.9	49.6	50.4	6.3	3.1	51	54	vs BOS Oct 20

	C	Nashville PredatorsNSH	8	3	2	3	9	3	23	24	-1		3–2–3	94	11.1	12.2	12.6	14.7	49.4	50.6	6.4	3.2	51	54	@ BOS Oct 22
	P	San Jose SharksSJS	8	4	3	1	9	0	22	29	-7		4–3–1	94	11.2	13.1	14.2	12.3	49.3	50.7	6.2	3.1	51	53	@ TOR Oct 19
	P	Anaheim DucksANA	7	4	3	0	8	3	22	21	+1		4–3–0	94	12.1	14.0	14.5	12.2	47.2	52.8	6.6	3.3	50	53	@ NYR Oct 19
	C	St. Louis BluesSTL	8	3	4	1	7	3	27	28	-1		3–4–1	92	7.2	9.3	10.7	13.8	59.0	41.0	5.1	2.6	52	55	vs WPG Oct 20
	C	Chicago BlackhawksCHI	9	3	6	0	6	2	21	36	-15		3–6–0	90	4.4	6.3	8.2	11.7	69.5	30.5	3.8	1.9	54	57	vs MTL Oct 23
	P	Vancouver CanucksVAN	10	2	7	1	5	1	30	45	-15		2–7–1	88	2.6	4.9	7.1	8.2	77.1	22.9	2.9	1.5	55	58	vs CAR Oct 20
	P	Calgary FlamesCGY	8	2	6	0	4	2	17	37	-20		2–6–0	89	3.9	6.5	8.8	9.6	71.2	28.8	3.6	1.8	54	57	vs MIN Oct 22
	P	Los Angeles KingsLAK	6	0	4	2	2	0	12	25	-13		0–4–2	89	4.0	6.6	8.8	9.5	71.1	28.9	3.7	1.8	54	56	@ WSH Oct 20

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 89–100 points (middle half of seasons; median 95, 10th–90th percentile 84–105). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–97). Reaching that season's cutline (55.6% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (52.8%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

ANA median 95

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

ANA's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfANA's median

Last 7 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 16	vs BOS	2–4	L	59.9
Oct 13	vs CGY	2–4	L	37.7
Oct 10	@ CGY	4–2	W	37.7
Oct 9	@ WPG	5–1	W	46.9
Oct 7	vs EDM	2–5	L	55.7
Oct 4	vs FLA	3–2 OT	W	50.5
Oct 2	@ VGK	4–3	W	56.2

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Mon Oct 19	@ NYR	45	1.04	50.5
Tue Oct 20	@ NYI	45	1.03	50.8
Thu Oct 22	@ NJD	48	1.08	48.0
Sat Oct 24	@ PHI	53	1.18	42.1
Tue Oct 27	vs VAN	71	1.48	32.5
Thu Oct 29	vs BUF	51	1.13	53.9
Sun Nov 1	vs OTT	50	1.12	55.0
Tue Nov 3	@ VAN	63	1.35	32.5
Thu Nov 5	@ EDM	40	0.95	55.7
Fri Nov 6	@ CGY	58	1.26	37.7
Expected over these 10			11.6

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 7 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	50.1
At home	54.6
Away	45.6
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	52.3
Points %, last 10 games	57.1
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	48.4	21st
xG share, 5 on 5	47.7	23rd
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	48.9	18th
xG for / against per game	3.07 / 3.28
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	22 vs 21.5	+0.5
Goals against vs xG against	21 vs 23.0
Goals saved above expected		+1.5

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
91	Leo Carlsson	C	7	2	7	9	-3	7	2	6	20:09
45	Beckett Sennecke	R	7	5	3	8	+1	18	9	4	21:12
64	Mikael Granlund	C	6	2	6	8	0	12	0	6	19:54
2	Jackson LaCombe	D	7	1	5	6	0	5	6	12	26:33
61	Cutter Gauthier	L	6	2	3	5	-1	21	6	3	17:28
42	Tim Washe	C	7	2	2	4	0	6	25	12	15:22
13	Nikita Nesterenko	C	7	2	1	3	+3	10	24	0	12:05
39	Jeff Malottfrom LAK	L	7	1	2	3	+2	7	16	4	9:46
28	Judd Caulfield	R	7	1	2	3	-1	6	17	1	12:22
47	Noah Warren	D	7	0	3	3	+4	7	13	13	17:21
17	Alex Killorn	L	7	1	1	2	+1	14	7	2	15:51
25	Ryan Poehling	C	5	1	1	2	-1	6	3	5	14:14
67	Tristan Luneau	D	7	0	2	2	-1	4	1	10	21:22
12	Sam Colangelo	R	4	1	0	1	+1	3	11	1	12:13
77	Frank Vatrano	R	4	1	0	1	0	3	3	2	11:32
18	A.J. Greerfrom FLA	L	6	0	1	1	-5	12	14	1	12:01
98	Pavel Mintyukov	D	7	0	1	1	-1	5	1	12	19:01
14	Drew Helleson	D	2	0	0	0	-1	3	2	4	18:38
95	Roger McQueen	C	2	0	0	0	-1	6	0	1	13:20
4	Nick Jensenfrom OTT	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	Anton Wahlbergfrom BUF	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40	Nikita Klepov	R	2	0	0	0	-1	0	6	0	13:44
34	Travis Mitchell	D	5	0	0	0	-3	3	6	7	16:36
38	James Hamblinfrom EDM	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
55	Tyson Hinds	D	7	0	0	0	0	9	5	9	13:53

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Beckett Sennecke	30	3.1	5	+1.9
Cutter Gauthier	40	2.6	2	-0.6
Nikita Nesterenko	14	2.0	2	-0.0
Jeff Malott	12	1.4	1	-0.4
Mikael Granlund	22	1.4	2	+0.6
Jackson LaCombe	13	1.2	1	-0.2
Leo Carlsson	17	1.2	2	+0.8
A.J. Greer	16	1.1	0	-1.1

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Lukas Dostal	244	17.9	18	-0.1
Ville Husso	49	3.6	2	+1.6