Columbus Blue Jackets

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 3–4–0, 6 pts in 7 games · GF 18, GA 23 (-5) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	53	55

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 87–98 points (middle half of seasons; median 92, 10th–90th percentile 82–103). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (43.8% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (40.6%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

CBJ median 92

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

CBJ's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfCBJ's median

Last 7 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 18	@ MIN	1–2	L	57.9
Oct 17	vs NYR	1–0 OT	W	50.5
Oct 13	vs FLA	3–7	L	50.5
Oct 10	@ STL	3–5	L	46.0
Oct 9	vs PIT	3–2 OT	W	48.5
Oct 3	vs UTA	1–4	L	56.0
Oct 1	vs BUF	6–3	W	53.9

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs TOR	59	1.29	42.3
Sat Oct 24	vs VGK	46	1.05	56.2
Tue Oct 27	@ PHI	51	1.14	42.1
Thu Oct 29	@ CAR	33	0.82	61.7
Sat Oct 31	@ DAL	36	0.88	57.6
Tue Nov 3	vs COL	39	0.93	63.4
Thu Nov 5	vs DAL	45	1.03	57.6
Fri Nov 6	@ BUF	40	0.94	53.9
Tue Nov 10	vs FLA	51	1.15	50.5
Thu Nov 12	vs TBL	42	0.98	60.3
Expected over these 10			10.2

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 7 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	47.5
At home	52.0
Away	43.1
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	38.0
Points %, last 10 games	42.9
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	45.1	27th
xG share, 5 on 5	47.7	22nd
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	46.9	23rd
xG for / against per game	2.83 / 3.44
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	17 vs 19.8	-2.8
Goals against vs xG against	23 vs 24.1
Goals saved above expected		+1.3

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
8	Zach Werenski	D	7	0	6	6	+7	15	2	21	29:22
3	Charlie Coyle	C	7	0	6	6	+2	13	5	5	18:53
91	Kent Johnson	C	7	4	1	5	0	20	1	3	17:27
4	Cole Sillinger	C	7	3	2	5	+1	10	12	5	15:11
89	Matthew Kniesfrom TOR	L	7	2	2	4	0	11	8	1	18:19
78	Damon Severson	D	5	1	3	4	+4	5	1	8	23:55
19	Adam Fantilli	C	7	2	1	3	+1	19	13	10	20:31
43	Valeri Nichushkinfrom COL	R	7	1	2	3	-1	10	13	5	16:25
23	Sean Monahan	C	7	1	2	3	-2	10	3	3	17:07
24	Mathieu Olivier	R	7	2	0	2	-1	11	23	1	14:37
5	Denton Mateychuk	D	7	1	1	2	-2	15	2	10	23:29
44	Erik Gudbranson	D	7	0	1	1	-4	5	7	17	17:24
36	Emil Andraefrom TOR	D	4	0	1	1	+2	1	3	6	10:35
7	Carson Soucyfrom NYI	D	6	0	1	1	-4	4	15	4	15:07
10	Dmitri Voronkov	L	5	0	1	1	-1	6	7	2	12:04
83	Conor Garland	R	7	0	0	0	0	6	6	2	12:43
2	Jake Christiansen	D	6	0	0	0	-2	1	7	7	12:45
58	Danton Heinen	L	7	0	0	0	-2	6	6	7	10:49
93	Luca Del Bel Belluz	C	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6:49
94	Ryan Lombergfrom CGY	L	7	0	0	0	+1	12	13	0	8:32

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Charlie Coyle	18	2.1	0	-2.1
Sean Monahan	16	2.1	1	-1.1
Cole Sillinger	16	1.9	3	+1.1
Kent Johnson	29	1.9	4	+2.1
Mathieu Olivier	18	1.7	2	+0.3
Matthew Knies	14	1.6	2	+0.4
Adam Fantilli	24	1.5	2	+0.5
Danton Heinen	13	1.2	0	-1.2

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Jet Greaves	181	13.0	11	+2.0
Cam Talbot	124	9.4	10	-0.6