Washington Capitals

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 5–3–0, 10 pts in 8 games · GF 28, GA 24 (+4) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	51	52

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 90–101 points (middle half of seasons; median 95, 10th–90th percentile 85–106). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (58.1% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (56.2%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

WSH median 95

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

WSH's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfWSH's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	vs NJD	4–2	W	48.0
Oct 14	vs MTL	5–4	W	53.3
Oct 13	@ CAR	2–4	L	61.7
Oct 11	vs SEA	3–5	L	47.4
Oct 9	vs NYR	3–1	W	50.5
Oct 7	vs PIT	5–3	W	48.5
Oct 3	@ TBL	1–3	L	60.3
Oct 2	@ CAR	5–2	W	61.7

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs LAK	69	1.46	38.8
Sat Oct 24	vs BUF	56	1.22	53.9
Wed Oct 28	vs PHI	66	1.41	42.1
Thu Oct 29	@ NSH	54	1.20	46.2
Sun Nov 1	vs MIN	52	1.15	57.9
Tue Nov 3	vs DAL	52	1.16	57.6
Sat Nov 7	vs FLA	59	1.28	50.5
Tue Nov 10	@ OTT	46	1.05	55.0
Thu Nov 12	@ NJD	53	1.17	48.0
Sat Nov 14	vs NJD	61	1.32	48.0
Expected over these 10			12.4

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	55.3
At home	59.7
Away	50.8
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	57.6
Points %, last 10 games	62.5
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	45.9	24th
xG share, 5 on 5	49.6	18th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	45.1	26th
xG for / against per game	3.33 / 3.92
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	28 vs 26.6	+1.4
Goals against vs xG against	24 vs 31.3
Goals saved above expected		+5.6

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
89	Alex Tuchfrom BUF	R	8	5	2	7	+4	22	8	7	18:46
9	Ryan Leonard	R	8	3	4	7	+1	19	14	2	13:48
17	Dylan Strome	C	8	1	5	6	+1	15	2	9	16:44
22	Boone Jennerfrom CBJ	C	8	4	1	5	+1	22	9	10	15:45
43	Tom Wilson	R	8	2	3	5	0	15	23	10	18:45
25	Jordan Kyroufrom STL	R	8	2	3	5	-5	10	2	3	13:30
62	Ilya Protas	L	8	1	4	5	0	9	3	4	11:52
8	Alex Ovechkin	L	8	1	3	4	+3	11	11	1	13:56
80	Pierre-Luc Dubois	C	4	1	3	4	+4	6	5	3	17:06
6	Jakob Chychrun	D	8	1	3	4	-1	22	2	9	24:23
44	Cole Hutson	D	8	1	3	4	+1	19	6	7	18:28
73	Vincent Desharnaisfrom SJS	D	8	0	3	3	+10	2	20	14	19:53
4	Justin Hollfrom STLto STL	D	3	2	0	2	+1	2	0	3	12:59
21	Aliaksei Protas	L	8	0	2	2	-1	8	3	8	16:11
27	Timothy Liljegren	D	8	1	0	1	0	5	9	16	18:24
34	Justin Sourdif	C	7	1	0	1	-2	6	13	2	13:24
72	Anthony Beauvillier	R	8	1	0	1	+2	8	13	2	11:43
63	Ivan Miroshnichenko	L	2	1	0	1	+2	1	3	2	11:17
42	Martin Fehérváry	D	8	0	1	1	+3	3	14	25	22:15
53	Ethen Frank	R	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	9:43
22	Jonny Brodzinski	C	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:34
3	Matt Roy	D	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	18:25
52	Dylan McIlrath	D	3	0	0	0	-2	0	2	0	6:21

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Alex Tuch	37	4.1	5	+0.9
Ryan Leonard	28	2.7	3	+0.3
Tom Wilson	20	2.7	2	-0.7
Dylan Strome	22	2.6	1	-1.6
Boone Jenner	24	2.3	4	+1.7
Cole Hutson	23	1.7	1	-0.7
Alex Ovechkin	24	1.4	1	-0.4
Ilya Protas	12	1.3	1	-0.3

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Logan Thompson	279	21.4	16	+5.4
Charlie Lindgren	97	6.2	6	+0.2