hockeystats.io

Philadelphia Flyers

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 1–6–3, 5 pts in 10 games · GF 14, GA 34 (-20) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50%Need 75% 95%
88 3.0 5.1 7.0 7.2 77.7 22.3 2.8 1.5 55 57 58

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

Record Goals Last 10 Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
Seed# Div Team GP W L OT Pts RW GF GA +/− Results W–L–OT PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50% 95% Next
Atlantic
1 A Boston BruinsBOS 9 7 2 0 14 6 34 19 +15 7–2–0 98 20.9 17.1 14.6 15.2 32.1 67.9 8.5 4.2 48 51 @ DAL Oct 20
2 A Tampa Bay LightningTBL 8 6 2 0 12 5 25 21 +4 6–2–0 97 18.6 15.5 14.1 15.6 36.2 63.8 7.9 3.9 48 51 @ VGK Oct 20
3 A Ottawa SenatorsOTT 9 6 3 0 12 4 24 23 +1 6–3–0 96 14.3 14.0 13.5 15.9 42.3 57.7 7.0 3.5 49 52 vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1 M Carolina HurricanesCAR 10 7 2 1 15 6 36 24 +12 7–2–1 98 25.2 18.6 15.1 9.9 31.2 68.8 8.6 4.2 48 50 @ VAN Oct 20
2 M New York RangersNYR 10 6 3 1 13 6 28 22 +6 6–3–1 96 18.0 16.4 14.9 10.6 40.1 59.9 7.5 3.8 49 51 vs ANA Oct 19
3 M Washington CapitalsWSH 8 5 3 0 10 5 28 24 +4 5–3–0 95 15.7 15.3 14.7 10.5 43.8 56.2 7.0 3.5 50 52 vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1 A Florida PanthersFLA 9 5 2 2 12 3 30 25 +5 5–2–2 96 14.0 13.9 13.6 15.6 43.0 57.0 7.2 3.6 49 52 @ OTT Oct 21
2 A Buffalo SabresBUF 9 4 3 2 10 2 27 34 -7 4–3–2 94 9.1 10.8 11.8 15.3 53.0 47.0 6.0 3.0 51 54 vs PHI Oct 21
M New York IslandersNYI 8 4 3 1 9 4 24 18 +6 4–3–1 94 13.0 13.5 13.7 10.5 49.3 50.7 6.3 3.2 51 53 vs ANA Oct 20
A Montréal CanadiensMTL 8 4 3 1 9 1 27 30 -3 4–3–1 94 9.4 10.9 11.9 15.3 52.5 47.5 6.0 3.0 51 54 vs SJS Oct 20
M New Jersey DevilsNJD 8 4 4 0 8 2 25 27 -2 4–4–0 93 10.1 11.9 12.7 10.4 54.8 45.2 5.7 2.8 51 54 vs COL Oct 20
A Detroit Red WingsDET 8 3 3 2 8 2 20 24 -4 3–3–2 93 7.7 9.6 10.8 14.7 57.1 42.9 5.4 2.7 51 54 @ SEA Oct 20
A Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 9 3 4 2 8 2 29 32 -3 3–4–2 92 6.0 8.1 9.7 13.9 62.3 37.7 4.6 2.3 52 55 vs SJS Oct 19
M Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 9 3 5 1 7 1 29 33 -4 3–5–1 91 6.5 8.6 10.4 9.4 65.2 34.8 4.3 2.1 53 56 @ UTA Oct 19
M Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 7 3 4 0 6 1 18 23 -5 3–4–0 92 8.4 10.7 11.6 10.0 59.4 40.6 5.2 2.6 52 55 vs TOR Oct 20
M Philadelphia FlyersPHI 10 1 6 3 5 1 14 34 -20 1–6–3 88 3.0 5.1 7.0 7.2 77.7 22.3 2.8 1.5 55 58 vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 83–94 points (middle half of seasons; median 88, 10th–90th percentile 78–98). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (24.6% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (22.3%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

Last 10 games

Date Opponent Score Opp str
Oct 17 vs OTT 3–1 W 55.0
Oct 15 @ DET 1–2 L 45.9
Oct 13 vs SEA 2–3 OT OTL 47.4
Oct 11 vs CAR 1–4 L 61.7
Oct 10 @ BOS 1–5 L 59.9
Oct 8 @ OTT 1–2 L 55.0
Oct 5 @ TBL 1–4 L 60.3
Oct 3 vs CAR 2–3 OT OTL 61.7
Oct 1 @ NJD 2–3 OT OTL 48.0
Sep 30 vs PIT 0–7 L 48.5

Next 10 games

Date Opponent Win % Exp pts Opp str
Mon Oct 19 vs COL 34 0.84 63.4
Wed Oct 21 @ BUF 35 0.85 53.9
Sat Oct 24 vs ANA 47 1.06 50.1
Tue Oct 27 vs CBJ 49 1.11 47.5
Wed Oct 28 @ WSH 34 0.83 55.3
Sun Nov 1 vs UTA 41 0.96 56.0
Tue Nov 3 vs MIN 39 0.93 57.9
Thu Nov 5 @ NYR 38 0.91 50.5
Sun Nov 8 @ CGY 50 1.12 37.7
Mon Nov 9 @ VAN 56 1.22 32.5
Expected over these 109.8

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 10 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice42.1
At home46.5
Away37.8
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against14.5
Points %, last 10 games25.0
Shot qualityRank
xG share, all situations37.432nd
xG share, 5 on 534.232nd
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)41.032nd
xG for / against per game2.20 / 3.67
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)14 vs 22.0-8.0
Goals against vs xG against33 vs 36.7
Goals saved above expected+3.3

Skaters

# Player Pos GP G A Pts +/− SOG Hit Blk TOI
39 Matvei Michkov R 10 4 1 5 -7 12 1 6 14:52
22 Christian Dvorak C 10 2 2 4 -2 9 13 7 17:24
46 Trevor Zegras C 10 2 2 4 -5 17 3 5 18:31
94 Porter Martone R 10 2 1 3 -2 11 13 1 13:15
6 Travis Sanheim D 10 1 2 3 -9 17 9 21 25:24
14 Sean Couturier C 10 0 3 3 -1 11 18 2 17:02
11 Travis Konecny R 5 0 3 3 -4 8 11 4 16:48
74 Owen Tippett R 9 1 1 2 -2 21 23 5 16:26
5 David Jiricek D 8 0 2 2 -3 6 8 11 15:29
86 Denver Barkey C 7 0 2 2 -1 4 6 1 14:23
24 Nick Seeler D 10 0 2 2 +2 8 17 27 19:34
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D 3 1 0 1 0 4 4 7 18:16
71 Tyson Foerster R 10 1 0 1 -8 22 18 6 17:35
59 Oliver Bonk D 4 0 1 1 -4 5 2 5 18:55
8 Cam York D 5 0 0 0 -6 6 5 10 21:49
20 Alex Bump L 3 0 0 0 0 4 7 0 12:08
27 Noah Cates L 10 0 0 0 -3 10 7 5 12:48
91 Carl Grundstrom R 5 0 0 0 0 5 14 4 11:19
10 Garrett Wilson L 2 0 0 0 -2 0 8 1 9:48
3 Helge Grans D 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 12:26
23 Jack Studnicka C 3 0 0 0 -1 1 4 3 8:48
52 Noel Acciarifrom PIT C 10 0 0 0 -6 6 27 9 13:53
58 Michael Buntingfrom DAL L 6 0 0 0 -5 8 5 0 11:36
9 Jamie Drysdale D 10 0 0 0 -4 11 6 20 22:04
44 Simon Benoitfrom TOR D 9 0 0 0 -5 6 17 6 14:26

Shooters by expected goals

ShooterShotsxGGG − xG
Trevor Zegras243.02-1.0
Matvei Michkov212.64+1.4
Tyson Foerster352.41-1.4
Owen Tippett311.61-0.6
Porter Martone181.22+0.8
Noah Cates131.20-1.2
Sean Couturier161.20-1.2
Travis Sanheim261.21-0.2

Goalies

GoalieShotsxGAGAGSAx
Joseph Woll25017.514+3.5
Dan Vladar22717.818-0.2