Buffalo Sabres

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference · 4–3–2, 10 pts in 9 games · GF 27, GA 34 (-7) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	52	54

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 89–100 points (middle half of seasons; median 94, 10th–90th percentile 84–104). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (51.8% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (47.0%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

BUF median 94

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

BUF's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfBUF's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ MTL	3–4 OT	OTL	53.3
Oct 15	@ TOR	5–4 OT	W	42.3
Oct 13	@ MTL	3–4 OT	OTL	53.3
Oct 12	vs FLA	5–3	W	50.5
Oct 10	vs UTA	1–4	L	56.0
Oct 8	vs DAL	0–4	L	57.6
Oct 6	vs MIN	3–2 OT	W	57.9
Oct 3	vs CHI	4–3	W	37.5
Oct 1	@ CBJ	3–6	L	47.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Wed Oct 21	vs PHI	65	1.39	42.1
Sat Oct 24	@ WSH	44	1.02	55.3
Tue Oct 27	@ SJS	54	1.19	45.1
Thu Oct 29	@ ANA	49	1.11	50.1
Sat Oct 31	@ LAK	60	1.30	38.8
Wed Nov 4	vs OTT	53	1.18	55.0
Fri Nov 6	vs CBJ	60	1.30	47.5
Sun Nov 8	vs VGK	52	1.16	56.2
Wed Nov 11	vs TBL	48	1.09	60.3
Thu Nov 12	@ CHI	61	1.32	37.5
Expected over these 10			12.1

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	53.9
At home	58.3
Away	49.4
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	38.7
Points %, last 10 games	55.6
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	49.8	15th
xG share, 5 on 5	52.5	12th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	53.6	7th
xG for / against per game	3.07 / 3.09
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	27 vs 27.6	-0.6
Goals against vs xG against	33 vs 27.8
Goals saved above expected		-4.7

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
72	Tage Thompson	C	9	5	4	9	+4	42	9	6	19:59
22	Jack Quinn	R	9	5	4	9	+4	24	9	2	19:33
25	Owen Power	D	9	2	6	8	+4	11	1	6	26:44
23	Mattias Samuelsson	D	9	2	5	7	0	13	10	7	23:20
86	Noah Ostlund	C	9	2	4	6	+5	20	1	2	18:52
6	Zach Benson	L	9	0	6	6	+4	19	13	5	19:52
26	Rasmus Dahlin	D	6	2	2	4	0	19	8	14	23:38
19	Peyton Krebs	C	9	0	4	4	-2	6	14	2	14:05
8	Olen Zellwegerfrom ANA	D	8	2	1	3	0	20	2	4	19:42
9	Josh Norris	C	9	2	1	3	-4	12	10	7	14:46
20	Jiri Kulich	C	7	1	2	3	+3	8	7	2	13:05
71	Ryan McLeod	C	9	1	1	2	-6	7	4	2	15:26
44	Dennis Gilbertfrom OTT	D	3	1	1	2	+3	1	3	2	10:16
94	Konsta Helenius	C	8	1	1	2	-4	11	8	1	13:44
91	Josh Doan	R	9	1	1	2	+1	13	14	7	16:14
29	Beck Malenstyn	L	9	0	2	2	-2	1	39	7	9:55
73	Zach Metsa	D	9	0	2	2	-1	3	1	12	12:56
46	Louis Crevierfrom CHI	D	9	0	1	1	-1	9	12	13	14:57
15	Justin Danforth	R	6	0	0	0	+1	1	3	2	9:09
48	Tyson Kozak	C	2	0	0	0	-1	0	2	0	9:09
24	Matt Grzelcyk	D	1	0	0	0	-1	0	0	1	14:27
10	Sam Carrick	C	4	0	0	0	-3	1	9	0	7:23
43	Conor Shearyfrom NYR	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Tage Thompson	56	4.5	5	+0.5
Zach Benson	34	3.3	0	-3.3
Jack Quinn	41	3.1	5	+1.9
Noah Ostlund	31	3.0	2	-1.0
Josh Norris	19	2.1	2	-0.1
Josh Doan	20	1.6	1	-0.6
Olen Zellweger	27	1.3	2	+0.7
Jiri Kulich	14	1.3	1	-0.3

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	259	19.3	24	-4.7
Colten Ellis	103	8.0	8	-0.0