Montréal Canadiens
Playoff odds
From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.
| Proj | Finish, % of seasons | Odds, % | Win % needed | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PtsProj | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC | Out | Playoffs | Final | Cup | 50%Need | 75% | 95% |
| 94 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 51 | 52 | 54 |
Playoff race, Eastern Conference
| Record | Goals | Last 10 | Proj | Finish, % of seasons | Odds, % | Win % needed | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed# | Div | Team | GP | W | L | OT | Pts | RW | GF | GA | +/− | Results | W–L–OT | PtsProj | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC | Out | Playoffs | Final | Cup | 50% | 95% | Next |
| Atlantic | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | A |
 |
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 7–2–0 | 98 | 20.9 | 17.1 | 14.6 | 15.2 | 32.1 | 67.9 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 48 | 51 | @ DAL Oct 20 | |
| 2 | A |
 |
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 6–2–0 | 97 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 15.6 | 36.2 | 63.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 48 | 51 | @ VGK Oct 20 | |
| 3 | A |
 |
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 24 | 23 | +1 | 6–3–0 | 96 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 15.9 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 49 | 52 | vs FLA Oct 21 | |
| Metropolitan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | M |
 |
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 7–2–1 | 98 | 25.2 | 18.6 | 15.1 | 9.9 | 31.2 | 68.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 48 | 50 | @ VAN Oct 20 | |
| 2 | M |
 |
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 6–3–1 | 96 | 18.0 | 16.4 | 14.9 | 10.6 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 49 | 51 | vs ANA Oct 19 | |
| 3 | M |
 |
8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 5–3–0 | 95 | 15.7 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 10.5 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 50 | 52 | vs LAK Oct 20 | |
| Wild Card | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | A |
 |
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 5–2–2 | 96 | 14.0 | 13.9 | 13.6 | 15.6 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 49 | 52 | @ OTT Oct 21 | |
| 2 | A |
 |
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 4–3–2 | 94 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 51 | 54 | vs PHI Oct 21 | |
| M |
 |
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 4–3–1 | 94 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 51 | 53 | vs ANA Oct 20 | ||
| A |
|
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 4–3–1 | 94 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 51 | 54 | vs SJS Oct 20 | ||
| M |
 |
8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 4–4–0 | 93 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 51 | 54 | vs COL Oct 20 | ||
| A |
 |
8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 3–3–2 | 93 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 14.7 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 51 | 54 | @ SEA Oct 20 | ||
| A |
 |
9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 3–4–2 | 92 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 13.9 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 52 | 55 | vs SJS Oct 19 | ||
| M |
 |
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 3–5–1 | 91 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 53 | 56 | @ UTA Oct 19 | ||
| M |
 |
7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 3–4–0 | 92 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 52 | 55 | vs TOR Oct 20 | ||
| M |
 |
10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 34 | -20 | 1–6–3 | 88 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 77.7 | 22.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 55 | 58 | vs COL Oct 19 | ||
Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.
Final points
Projected 89–100 points (middle half of seasons; median 94, 10th–90th percentile 84–105). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (52.5% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (47.5%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.
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MTL's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfMTL's median
Last 8 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Opp str | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | vs |
4–3 OT | W | 53.9 |
| Oct 14 | @ |
4–5 | L | 55.3 |
| Oct 13 | vs |
4–3 OT | W | 53.9 |
| Oct 10 | vs |
1–0 OT | W | 45.9 |
| Oct 8 | vs  |
2–5 | L | 46.2 |
| Oct 6 | vs |
4–6 | L | 61.7 |
| Oct 3 | @ |
5–6 OT | OTL | 48.5 |
| Sep 29 | @ |
3–2 | W | 42.3 |
Next 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Win % | Exp pts | Opp str |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 20 | vs  |
62 | 1.33 | 45.1 |
| Fri Oct 23 | @  |
61 | 1.31 | 37.5 |
| Sun Oct 25 | @  |
52 | 1.16 | 46.9 |
| Tue Oct 27 | @  |
53 | 1.17 | 46.0 |
| Thu Oct 29 | @  |
42 | 0.98 | 57.6 |
| Sat Oct 31 | vs |
59 | 1.28 | 48.5 |
| Tue Nov 3 | vs |
60 | 1.30 | 46.9 |
| Thu Nov 5 | vs  |
52 | 1.15 | 56.0 |
| Sat Nov 7 | @ |
56 | 1.23 | 42.3 |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs  |
50 | 1.12 | 57.9 |
| Expected over these 10 | 12.0 | |||
Ratings and shot quality
The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.
| Ratings | ||
|---|---|---|
| Strength, neutral ice | 53.3 | |
| At home | 57.8 | |
| Away | 48.9 | |
| Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against | 44.8 | |
| Points %, last 10 games | 56.2 | |
| Shot quality | Rank | |
| xG share, all situations | 49.3 | 17th |
| xG share, 5 on 5 | 52.9 | 11th |
| Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi) | 55.4 | 6th |
| xG for / against per game | 3.31 / 3.40 | |
| Goals for vs xG for (finishing) | 25 vs 26.4 | -1.4 |
| Goals against vs xG against | 30 vs 27.2 | |
| Goals saved above expected | -4.0 | |
Skaters
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | Pts | +/− | SOG | Hit | Blk | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | C | 8 | 4 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 21:52 |
| 48 | Lane Hutson | D | 8 | 2 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 26:28 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | R | 8 | 5 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 19:41 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | R | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 | +2 | 17 | 18 | 0 | 13:40 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | R | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 | +2 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 13:50 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | L | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 19:04 |
| 22 | Chris Kreider | L | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 14:56 |
| 15 | Alex Newhook | C | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 16:15 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | D | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 19:12 |
| 85 | Alexandre Texier | L | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 12:56 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | R | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15:37 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | D | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 21:33 |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | D | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 24:09 |
| 24 | Phillip Danault | C | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 15:52 |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | C | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 9:45 |
| 21 | Kaiden Guhle | D | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 21:40 |
| 3 | Jayden Strubleto NSH | D | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12:05 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | C | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 13:30 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:40 |
| 64 | David Reinbacher | D | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9:09 |
| 62 | Owen Beck | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:22 |
| 63 | Florian Xhekaj | L | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:36 |
| 42 | Adam Engstrom | D | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:00 |
| 72 | Arber Xhekaj | D | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 11:59 |
| 79 | Maksymilian Szuberfrom UTA | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Shooters by expected goals
| Shooter | Shots | xG | G | G − xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki | 44 | 3.3 | 4 | +0.7 |
| Cole Caufield | 42 | 3.1 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Juraj Slafkovský | 31 | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Josh Anderson | 26 | 2.8 | 4 | +1.2 |
| Zachary Bolduc | 21 | 2.2 | 4 | +1.8 |
| Alex Newhook | 18 | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Chris Kreider | 19 | 1.6 | 1 | -0.6 |
| Lane Hutson | 29 | 1.5 | 2 | +0.5 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Shots | xGA | GA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | 162 | 12.1 | 18 | -5.9 |
| Jacob Fowler | 138 | 10.9 | 9 | +1.9 |