Carolina Hurricanes

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 7–2–1, 15 pts in 10 games · GF 36, GA 24 (+12) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	48	50

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 93–103 points (middle half of seasons; median 98, 10th–90th percentile 88–108). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (70.8% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (68.8%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

CAR median 98

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

CAR's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfCAR's median

Last 10 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 18	@ CGY	2–3	L	37.7
Oct 17	@ WPG	3–2	W	46.9
Oct 13	vs WSH	4–2	W	55.3
Oct 11	@ PHI	4–1	W	42.1
Oct 10	@ CHI	5–2	W	37.5
Oct 8	vs VAN	7–2	W	32.5
Oct 6	@ MTL	6–4	W	53.3
Oct 3	@ PHI	3–2 OT	W	42.1
Oct 2	vs WSH	2–5	L	55.3
Sep 29	vs FLA	0–1 OT	OTL	50.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	@ VAN	73	1.52	32.5
Thu Oct 22	@ EDM	52	1.15	55.7
Sat Oct 24	@ STL	61	1.31	46.0
Tue Oct 27	vs BOS	56	1.23	59.9
Thu Oct 29	vs CBJ	67	1.43	47.5
Sun Nov 1	vs WPG	68	1.44	46.9
Tue Nov 3	@ NSH	61	1.31	46.2
Thu Nov 5	@ NYI	56	1.23	50.8
Sat Nov 7	vs CHI	75	1.57	37.5
Thu Nov 12	@ SEA	60	1.29	47.4
Expected over these 10			13.5

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 10 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	61.7
At home	65.8
Away	57.4
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	69.2
Points %, last 10 games	75.0
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	60.9	1st
xG share, 5 on 5	58.7	2nd
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	60.1	2nd
xG for / against per game	3.88 / 2.50
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	36 vs 38.8	-2.8
Goals against vs xG against	24 vs 25.0
Goals saved above expected		+0.6

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
20	Sebastian Aho	C	10	6	8	14	+6	30	5	5	19:57
37	Andrei Svechnikov	R	10	6	5	11	+5	30	23	2	17:33
53	Jackson Blake	R	10	1	7	8	+1	27	2	3	18:16
77	Mark Jankowski	L	9	6	1	7	0	15	6	4	13:46
4	Shayne Gostisbehere	D	10	2	5	7	+5	21	3	4	18:05
22	Logan Stankoven	C	10	4	2	6	+4	27	4	5	17:29
50	Eric Robinson	L	10	2	4	6	+4	16	21	1	12:26
26	Sean Walker	D	10	0	6	6	-1	14	10	19	21:34
28	William Carrier	L	10	0	6	6	+1	15	35	4	12:29
71	Taylor Hall	L	8	3	2	5	+2	17	9	1	13:01
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	L	10	1	4	5	-4	19	3	1	16:11
82	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	C	8	2	2	4	+1	9	12	3	11:19
5	Jalen Chatfield	D	10	1	2	3	+2	18	4	10	20:27
19	K'Andre Miller	D	10	1	2	3	-3	16	11	10	22:24
48	Jordan Martinook	L	10	1	2	3	-3	17	14	3	14:26
74	Jaccob Slavin	D	10	0	3	3	+4	18	3	24	21:05
6	Mike Reilly	D	8	0	2	2	+4	9	15	6	12:26
29	Bradly Nadeau	L	2	0	1	1	-2	2	4	1	14:06
44	Nicolas Deslauriers	L	5	0	1	1	0	2	17	1	7:56
11	Jordan Staal	C	6	0	0	0	-2	6	19	3	15:33
36	Felix Unger Sörum	R	2	0	0	0	+1	1	0	2	11:38
62	Charles Alexis Legault	D	2	0	0	0	0	2	3	2	11:53

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Andrei Svechnikov	43	5.6	6	+0.4
Sebastian Aho	50	4.4	6	+1.6
Jackson Blake	38	4.2	1	-3.2
Logan Stankoven	35	3.4	4	+0.6
Mark Jankowski	24	3.3	6	+2.7
William Carrier	29	2.6	0	-2.6
Taylor Hall	21	2.1	3	+0.9
Nikolaj Ehlers	30	1.9	1	-0.9

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Brandon Bussi	172	12.5	15	-2.5
Pyotr Kochetkov	163	12.1	9	+3.1