Boston Bruins

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference · 7–2–0, 14 pts in 9 games · GF 34, GA 19 (+15) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	48	51

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 93–104 points (middle half of seasons; median 98, 10th–90th percentile 88–108). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (70.8% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (67.9%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

BOS median 98

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

BOS's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfBOS's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ LAK	4–1	W	38.8
Oct 16	@ ANA	4–2	W	50.1
Oct 13	@ SJS	6–3	W	45.1
Oct 10	vs PHI	5–1	W	42.1
Oct 8	vs UTA	6–1	W	56.0
Oct 5	vs OTT	1–4	L	55.0
Oct 3	@ MIN	1–4	L	57.9
Oct 2	@ WPG	4–3 OT	W	46.9
Sep 29	vs NYR	3–0	W	50.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	@ DAL	48	1.09	57.6
Thu Oct 22	vs NSH	67	1.42	46.2
Sat Oct 24	vs SJS	68	1.44	45.1
Tue Oct 27	@ CAR	44	1.02	61.7
Thu Oct 29	@ STL	59	1.28	46.0
Sat Oct 31	vs CHI	74	1.54	37.5
Mon Nov 2	vs VGK	58	1.26	56.2
Thu Nov 5	@ PIT	57	1.24	48.5
Sun Nov 8	vs FLA	63	1.35	50.5
Thu Nov 12	vs MTL	61	1.31	53.3
Expected over these 10			13.0

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	59.9
At home	64.2
Away	55.5
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	76.2
Points %, last 10 games	77.8
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	50.2	13th
xG share, 5 on 5	53.0	10th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	48.5	19th
xG for / against per game	3.03 / 3.00
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	34 vs 27.3	+6.7
Goals against vs xG against	19 vs 27.0
Goals saved above expected		+7.5

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
88	David Pastrnak	R	9	4	8	12	+3	34	13	3	19:44
93	Fraser Minten	C	9	4	4	8	+7	23	9	5	16:29
39	Morgan Geekie	C	9	1	7	8	+3	9	16	4	17:45
28	Elias Lindholm	C	9	3	4	7	+2	14	5	4	16:20
10	JJ Peterkafrom UTA	R	9	3	3	6	+4	15	5	5	16:28
44	James Hagens	C	9	2	4	6	+2	15	6	11	12:43
51	Matthew Poitras	C	6	3	2	5	+4	8	6	2	10:42
92	Marat Khusnutdinov	C	9	2	3	5	+7	10	7	3	13:35
18	Pavel Zacha	C	8	2	3	5	+3	12	4	5	18:05
6	Mason Lohrei	D	9	2	3	5	+4	9	2	9	18:11
47	Mark Kastelic	C	9	1	4	5	+2	8	21	9	11:19
27	Hampus Lindholm	D	9	1	3	4	+9	9	2	10	20:48
11	Casey Mittelstadt	C	9	2	1	3	+3	13	2	5	13:30
17	Will Borgenfrom NYR	D	9	1	2	3	+9	4	26	13	18:45
91	Nikita Zadorov	D	8	0	3	3	+1	10	31	11	19:51
42	Frederic Brunet	D	6	1	1	2	+3	7	4	11	17:00
73	Charlie McAvoy	D	3	1	1	2	+3	7	4	7	25:50
84	Tanner Jeannot	L	9	1	0	1	+2	4	27	5	11:35
75	Connor Cliftonfrom PIT	D	6	0	1	1	0	6	13	6	20:37
52	Sean Kuraly	C	4	0	0	0	0	8	9	4	12:44
45	Jonathan Aspirot	D	4	0	0	0	+1	4	9	9	16:58

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
David Pastrnak	46	3.3	4	+0.7
Fraser Minten	30	2.6	4	+1.4
Elias Lindholm	24	2.4	3	+0.6
JJ Peterka	22	2.2	3	+0.8
James Hagens	22	2.1	2	-0.1
Morgan Geekie	22	2.0	1	-1.0
Pavel Zacha	22	1.9	2	+0.1
Mark Kastelic	14	1.6	1	-0.6

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Jeremy Swayman	292	19.4	13	+6.4
Michael DiPietro	86	6.1	5	+1.1