Toronto Maple Leafs

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference · 3–4–2, 8 pts in 9 games · GF 29, GA 32 (-3) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	54	55

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 87–98 points (middle half of seasons; median 92, 10th–90th percentile 82–102). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (42.1% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (37.7%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

TOR median 92

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

TOR's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfTOR's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	vs NYI	1–4	L	50.8
Oct 15	vs BUF	4–5 OT	OTL	53.9
Oct 13	@ UTA	4–5	L	56.0
Oct 10	@ COL	6–3	W	63.4
Oct 8	@ VGK	3–4 OT	OTL	56.2
Oct 6	vs NSH	5–4 OT	W	46.2
Oct 3	vs OTT	2–3	L	55.0
Sep 30	vs NYI	2–1	W	50.8
Sep 29	vs MTL	2–3	L	53.3

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Mon Oct 19	vs SJS	52	1.15	45.1
Tue Oct 20	@ CBJ	41	0.96	47.5
Thu Oct 22	vs NYR	46	1.06	50.5
Sat Oct 24	@ EDM	33	0.83	55.7
Mon Oct 26	@ CGY	50	1.13	37.7
Wed Oct 28	@ SEA	41	0.96	47.4
Sat Oct 31	@ VAN	56	1.22	32.5
Tue Nov 3	vs UTA	41	0.97	56.0
Sat Nov 7	vs MTL	44	1.01	53.3
Sun Nov 8	vs NJD	49	1.10	48.0
Expected over these 10			10.4

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	42.3
At home	46.7
Away	37.9
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	45.1
Points %, last 10 games	44.4
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	45.9	25th
xG share, 5 on 5	45.1	28th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	46.5	24th
xG for / against per game	3.02 / 3.55
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	29 vs 27.2	+1.8
Goals against vs xG against	31 vs 32.0
Goals saved above expected		+0.3

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
34	Auston Matthews	C	9	6	7	13	+2	27	6	11	21:44
88	William Nylander	R	9	5	7	12	-4	28	1	3	20:37
86	Kirill Marchenkofrom CBJ	R	9	4	5	9	-3	25	12	2	18:44
53	Easton Cowan	R	9	3	4	7	-2	19	10	6	15:05
91	John Tavares	C	7	2	5	7	-5	17	4	5	16:31
96	Jack Roslovicfrom EDM	C	9	3	3	6	-2	30	4	5	16:49
92	Gavin McKenna	L	9	2	3	5	-5	17	0	1	14:23
20	Nick Paulfrom TBL	L	9	1	3	4	-3	8	18	8	15:46
44	Morgan Rielly	D	9	0	4	4	-6	11	4	11	19:11
43	Darren Raddyshfrom TBL	D	9	0	4	4	-3	21	5	16	23:54
15	Colton Sissonsfrom VGK	C	9	2	1	3	-1	10	25	6	14:59
3	Nick Blankenburg	D	4	1	0	1	-2	4	6	1	14:21
28	Troy Stecher	D	9	0	1	1	-2	6	7	11	17:47
8	Chris Tanev	D	6	0	1	1	+1	1	1	14	16:50
18	Miles Woodfrom CBJ	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	Brandon Duhaimefrom WSH	L	9	0	0	0	-1	6	18	9	11:12
19	Zack MacEwenfrom NJD	R	3	0	0	0	-1	0	8	0	6:51
36	Emil Andraefrom PHIto CBJ	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	Jake McCabe	D	9	0	0	0	-1	7	13	16	19:51
29	Bo Groulx	C	6	0	0	0	+1	3	9	3	8:19
83	Marshall Rifai	D	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9:04
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	D	9	0	0	0	-2	3	10	5	17:05
73	Teddy Bluegerfrom VAN	C	9	0	0	0	-1	9	11	2	12:03

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Auston Matthews	41	4.1	6	+1.9
William Nylander	46	4.0	5	+1.0
Kirill Marchenko	37	3.4	4	+0.6
Jack Roslovic	39	2.7	3	+0.3
John Tavares	23	2.5	2	-0.5
Nick Paul	16	2.0	1	-1.0
Gavin McKenna	24	1.9	2	+0.1
Easton Cowan	23	1.7	3	+1.3

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky	279	21.5	20	+1.5
Anthony Stolarz	128	8.8	10	-1.2