Florida Panthers

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference · 5–2–2, 12 pts in 9 games · GF 30, GA 25 (+5) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	51	52

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 91–102 points (middle half of seasons; median 96, 10th–90th percentile 86–106). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (61.3% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (57.0%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

FLA median 96

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

FLA's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfFLA's median

Last 9 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	vs SEA	8–3	W	47.4
Oct 15	vs VAN	3–2 OT	W	32.5
Oct 13	@ CBJ	7–3	W	47.5
Oct 12	@ BUF	3–5	L	53.9
Oct 10	vs MIN	1–4	L	57.9
Oct 6	@ LAK	2–1	W	38.8
Oct 4	@ ANA	2–3 OT	OTL	50.1
Oct 1	@ SJS	3–4 OT	OTL	45.1
Sep 29	@ CAR	1–0 OT	W	61.7

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Wed Oct 21	@ OTT	41	0.97	55.0
Thu Oct 22	@ PIT	48	1.08	48.5
Sun Oct 25	@ CHI	58	1.27	37.5
Tue Oct 27	@ WPG	49	1.11	46.9
Fri Oct 30	vs WPG	58	1.26	46.9
Mon Nov 2	vs DET	59	1.27	45.9
Wed Nov 4	vs CHI	66	1.41	37.5
Sat Nov 7	@ WSH	41	0.97	55.3
Sun Nov 8	@ BOS	37	0.89	59.9
Tue Nov 10	@ CBJ	49	1.10	47.5
Expected over these 10			11.3

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	50.5
At home	55.0
Away	46.0
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	59.0
Points %, last 10 games	66.7
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	54.2	9th
xG share, 5 on 5	56.6	6th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	57.8	3rd
xG for / against per game	3.39 / 2.87
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	30 vs 30.5	-0.5
Goals against vs xG against	25 vs 25.8
Goals saved above expected		-0.3

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
19	Matthew Tkachuk	L	9	3	11	14	+4	19	13	1	19:32
8	Brady Tkachukfrom OTT	L	9	6	4	10	+2	32	30	1	17:02
3	Seth Jones	D	9	1	9	10	+2	25	8	9	25:30
23	Carter Verhaeghe	C	9	6	2	8	+6	16	3	2	18:28
13	Sam Reinhart	C	9	5	3	8	+1	29	14	3	20:50
9	Sam Bennett	C	9	3	3	6	+5	21	23	2	18:25
20	Lars Ellerfrom OTT	C	9	0	5	5	+4	8	5	6	14:37
15	Anton Lundell	C	9	1	2	3	-2	25	13	4	17:57
5	Aaron Ekblad	D	7	0	3	3	-5	11	11	5	21:02
27	Eetu Luostarinen	C	9	2	0	2	-1	13	16	7	15:54
42	Gustav Forsling	D	8	1	1	2	-2	10	5	6	21:22
77	Niko Mikkola	D	9	1	1	2	+2	13	9	9	19:46
7	Dmitry Kulikov	D	9	0	2	2	+3	5	11	7	15:15
63	Brad Marchand	L	2	1	0	1	0	5	2	0	11:23
26	Uvis Balinskis	D	6	0	1	1	+3	2	8	3	14:24
95	Sandis Vilmanis	L	9	0	1	1	-2	11	28	5	13:05
36	Alexander Petrovicfrom DAL	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Radko Gudasfrom ANA	D	6	0	0	0	+2	3	13	11	13:07
18	Sam Laffertyfrom CHI	C	5	0	0	0	-4	4	6	4	10:03
21	Garnet Hathawayfrom PHI	R	9	0	0	0	-1	3	41	3	9:36
16	Aleksander Barkov	C	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	14:53
17	John Beecherfrom CGY	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Bokondji Imama	L	9	0	0	0	-2	6	28	2	7:33

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Sam Reinhart	46	5.1	5	-0.1
Brady Tkachuk	49	4.4	6	+1.6
Sam Bennett	29	2.9	3	+0.1
Carter Verhaeghe	37	2.7	6	+3.3
Matthew Tkachuk	31	2.5	3	+0.5
Anton Lundell	33	2.5	1	-1.5
Eetu Luostarinen	17	2.1	2	-0.1
Sandis Vilmanis	18	1.7	0	-1.7

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Jacob Markstrom	182	12.8	12	+0.8
Akira Schmid	150	10.9	12	-1.1