Tampa Bay Lightning

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference · 6–2–0, 12 pts in 8 games · GF 25, GA 21 (+4) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	49	51

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 92–103 points (middle half of seasons; median 97, 10th–90th percentile 87–108). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (66.9% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (63.8%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

TBL median 97

70 80 90 100 110 120 130

TBL's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfTBL's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	vs VAN	4–2	W	32.5
Oct 15	vs SEA	4–3 OT	W	47.4
Oct 13	@ NYR	1–4	L	50.5
Oct 10	@ NYI	5–3	W	50.8
Oct 8	vs MIN	3–2	W	57.9
Oct 5	vs PHI	4–1	W	42.1
Oct 3	vs WSH	3–1	W	55.3
Oct 1	@ NYR	1–5	L	50.5

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	@ VGK	50	1.12	56.2
Fri Oct 23	@ COL	43	0.99	63.4
Sat Oct 24	@ UTA	50	1.12	56.0
Thu Oct 29	vs WPG	67	1.42	46.9
Sat Oct 31	@ NSH	59	1.29	46.2
Tue Nov 3	vs DET	68	1.43	45.9
Thu Nov 5	vs CHI	74	1.55	37.5
Sat Nov 7	@ MIN	48	1.09	57.9
Sun Nov 8	@ WPG	59	1.27	46.9
Wed Nov 11	@ BUF	52	1.16	53.9
Expected over these 10			12.4

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	60.3
At home	64.5
Away	55.9
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	58.6
Points %, last 10 games	75.0
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	59.1	3rd
xG share, 5 on 5	58.1	3rd
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	56.3	5th
xG for / against per game	3.83 / 2.65
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	25 vs 30.6	-5.6
Goals against vs xG against	21 vs 21.2
Goals saved above expected		+0.5

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
38	Brandon Hagel	L	8	6	5	11	0	38	6	8	21:52
86	Nikita Kucherov	R	8	3	7	10	+1	24	1	2	21:43
59	Jake Guentzel	C	8	4	5	9	+1	20	5	4	20:11
21	Brayden Point	C	8	1	5	6	+3	16	1	3	19:12
29	Pontus Holmberg	R	8	2	3	5	+4	14	4	3	14:36
95	Ilya Mikheyevfrom CHI	R	8	2	2	4	+3	10	9	2	14:33
74	John Carlsonfrom ANA	D	8	2	2	4	-3	23	8	10	19:56
77	Victor Hedman	D	8	1	2	3	+4	11	3	11	14:07
71	Anthony Cirelli	C	8	1	2	3	+3	12	6	6	17:48
28	Zemgus Girgensons	C	8	1	1	2	+2	10	26	5	13:42
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	D	7	1	1	2	-1	11	7	11	14:54
24	Max Crozier	D	5	0	2	2	0	8	11	6	16:45
94	Conor Geekie	C	8	1	0	1	-1	9	22	3	11:39
17	Dominic James	C	2	0	1	1	+1	1	7	0	12:58
27	Ryan McDonagh	D	8	0	1	1	+5	5	2	11	15:24
81	Erik Cernak	D	8	0	1	1	+7	13	18	13	18:51
49	Scott Sabourin	R	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	9:29
25	Jeffrey Vielfrom ANA	L	6	0	0	0	-4	6	20	1	8:55
93	Gage Goncalves	C	7	0	0	0	+1	5	9	3	15:57
10	Jansen Harkinsfrom ANA	C	1	0	0	0	-1	1	5	0	10:55
90	J.J. Moser	D	8	0	0	0	+1	7	3	11	18:03
78	Emil Lilleberg	D	3	0	0	0	0	2	4	2	12:15

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Brandon Hagel	50	6.9	6	-0.9
Jake Guentzel	27	3.3	4	+0.7
Nikita Kucherov	40	3.0	3	-0.0
Brayden Point	34	3.0	1	-2.0
Pontus Holmberg	21	2.8	2	-0.8
John Carlson	30	1.5	2	+0.5
Anthony Cirelli	16	1.3	1	-0.3
Ilya Mikheyev	14	1.3	2	+0.7

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	199	14.9	15	-0.1
Dennis Hildeby	74	4.5	4	+0.5