New Jersey Devils

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 4–4–0, 8 pts in 8 games · GF 25, GA 27 (-2) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	52	54

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 88–99 points (middle half of seasons; median 93, 10th–90th percentile 83–104). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (48.1% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (45.2%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

NJD median 93

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

NJD's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfNJD's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ WSH	2–4	L	55.3
Oct 15	vs NYR	7–1	W	50.5
Oct 13	@ DET	5–4 OT	W	45.9
Oct 12	vs OTT	1–4	L	55.0
Oct 10	vs VAN	4–1	W	32.5
Oct 6	vs UTA	3–5	L	56.0
Oct 3	@ NYI	0–6	L	50.8
Oct 1	vs PHI	3–2 OT	W	42.1

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs COL	39	0.94	63.4
Thu Oct 22	vs ANA	52	1.16	50.1
Sat Oct 24	vs LAK	63	1.35	38.8
Tue Oct 27	@ DAL	37	0.89	57.6
Wed Oct 28	@ COL	31	0.80	63.4
Fri Oct 30	@ VGK	38	0.91	56.2
Tue Nov 3	vs EDM	47	1.07	55.7
Thu Nov 5	vs STL	56	1.23	46.0
Sat Nov 7	@ NYI	43	1.00	50.8
Sun Nov 8	@ TOR	51	1.14	42.3
Expected over these 10			10.5

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	48.0
At home	52.5
Away	43.6
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	46.2
Points %, last 10 games	50.0
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	57.5	4th
xG share, 5 on 5	61.5	1st
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	62.5	1st
xG for / against per game	3.62 / 2.67
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	25 vs 28.9	-3.9
Goals against vs xG against	27 vs 21.4
Goals saved above expected		-6.1

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
86	Jack Hughes	C	8	2	7	9	0	32	0	4	21:09
63	Jesper Bratt	L	8	2	5	7	0	22	9	1	18:03
13	Nico Hischier	C	8	4	1	5	-2	16	9	4	18:30
81	Arseny Gritsyuk	R	8	3	2	5	0	19	9	5	15:48
43	Luke Hughes	D	8	3	1	4	0	24	2	4	24:01
17	Evan Rodriguesfrom FLA	C	8	2	2	4	-1	14	11	2	15:46
28	Timo Meier	R	8	1	3	4	-2	30	17	2	16:21
7	Dougie Hamilton	D	8	1	3	4	+1	24	8	14	21:15
91	Dawson Mercer	C	8	0	4	4	-1	19	6	4	15:03
70	Jesper Boqvistfrom FLA	C	6	2	1	3	+1	12	4	1	11:38
77	Luke Evangelista	R	5	2	1	3	-1	12	1	3	17:12
11	Stefan Noesen	R	5	1	2	3	0	6	14	0	9:30
93	Amadeus Lombardi	C	8	0	3	3	-1	14	3	1	10:46
39	Anthony Manthafrom PIT	R	8	1	1	2	0	10	2	0	13:12
22	Brett Pesce	D	8	0	2	2	+3	7	1	13	21:15
12	Cody Glass	C	8	1	0	1	0	12	8	1	12:09
71	Jonas Siegenthaler	D	8	0	1	1	-3	2	3	13	19:00
47	Declan Chisholmfrom WSH	D	8	0	1	1	-1	2	3	7	14:36
5	Brenden Dillon	D	5	0	0	0	-2	1	10	4	14:26
8	Johnathan Kovacevic	D	3	0	0	0	-2	2	1	3	15:09

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Jack Hughes	48	4.5	2	-2.5
Nico Hischier	27	2.8	4	+1.2
Jesper Bratt	31	2.5	2	-0.5
Timo Meier	41	2.2	1	-1.2
Arseny Gritsyuk	32	2.0	3	+1.0
Dawson Mercer	26	1.9	0	-1.9
Amadeus Lombardi	22	1.7	0	-1.7
Anthony Mantha	14	1.7	1	-0.7

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Jake Allen	181	12.4	16	-3.6
Nico Daws	97	7.5	10	-2.5