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Ottawa Senators

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference · 6–3–0, 12 pts in 9 games · GF 24, GA 23 (+1) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50%Need 75% 95%
96 14.3 14.0 13.5 15.9 42.3 57.7 7.0 3.5 49 51 52

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

Record Goals Last 10 Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
Seed# Div Team GP W L OT Pts RW GF GA +/− Results W–L–OT PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50% 95% Next
Atlantic
1 A Boston BruinsBOS 9 7 2 0 14 6 34 19 +15 7–2–0 98 20.9 17.1 14.6 15.2 32.1 67.9 8.5 4.2 48 51 @ DAL Oct 20
2 A Tampa Bay LightningTBL 8 6 2 0 12 5 25 21 +4 6–2–0 97 18.6 15.5 14.1 15.6 36.2 63.8 7.9 3.9 48 51 @ VGK Oct 20
3 A Ottawa SenatorsOTT 9 6 3 0 12 4 24 23 +1 6–3–0 96 14.3 14.0 13.5 15.9 42.3 57.7 7.0 3.5 49 52 vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1 M Carolina HurricanesCAR 10 7 2 1 15 6 36 24 +12 7–2–1 98 25.2 18.6 15.1 9.9 31.2 68.8 8.6 4.2 48 50 @ VAN Oct 20
2 M New York RangersNYR 10 6 3 1 13 6 28 22 +6 6–3–1 96 18.0 16.4 14.9 10.6 40.1 59.9 7.5 3.8 49 51 vs ANA Oct 19
3 M Washington CapitalsWSH 8 5 3 0 10 5 28 24 +4 5–3–0 95 15.7 15.3 14.7 10.5 43.8 56.2 7.0 3.5 50 52 vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1 A Florida PanthersFLA 9 5 2 2 12 3 30 25 +5 5–2–2 96 14.0 13.9 13.6 15.6 43.0 57.0 7.2 3.6 49 52 @ OTT Oct 21
2 A Buffalo SabresBUF 9 4 3 2 10 2 27 34 -7 4–3–2 94 9.1 10.8 11.8 15.3 53.0 47.0 6.0 3.0 51 54 vs PHI Oct 21
M New York IslandersNYI 8 4 3 1 9 4 24 18 +6 4–3–1 94 13.0 13.5 13.7 10.5 49.3 50.7 6.3 3.2 51 53 vs ANA Oct 20
A Montréal CanadiensMTL 8 4 3 1 9 1 27 30 -3 4–3–1 94 9.4 10.9 11.9 15.3 52.5 47.5 6.0 3.0 51 54 vs SJS Oct 20
M New Jersey DevilsNJD 8 4 4 0 8 2 25 27 -2 4–4–0 93 10.1 11.9 12.7 10.4 54.8 45.2 5.7 2.8 51 54 vs COL Oct 20
A Detroit Red WingsDET 8 3 3 2 8 2 20 24 -4 3–3–2 93 7.7 9.6 10.8 14.7 57.1 42.9 5.4 2.7 51 54 @ SEA Oct 20
A Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 9 3 4 2 8 2 29 32 -3 3–4–2 92 6.0 8.1 9.7 13.9 62.3 37.7 4.6 2.3 52 55 vs SJS Oct 19
M Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 9 3 5 1 7 1 29 33 -4 3–5–1 91 6.5 8.6 10.4 9.4 65.2 34.8 4.3 2.1 53 56 @ UTA Oct 19
M Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 7 3 4 0 6 1 18 23 -5 3–4–0 92 8.4 10.7 11.6 10.0 59.4 40.6 5.2 2.6 52 55 vs TOR Oct 20
M Philadelphia FlyersPHI 10 1 6 3 5 1 14 34 -20 1–6–3 88 3.0 5.1 7.0 7.2 77.7 22.3 2.8 1.5 55 58 vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 91–102 points (middle half of seasons; median 96, 10th–90th percentile 86–107). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (61.6% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (57.7%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

Last 9 games

Date Opponent Score Opp str
Oct 17 @ PHI 1–3 L 42.1
Oct 15 vs NYI 2–1 OT W 50.8
Oct 13 vs STL 2–7 L 46.0
Oct 12 @ NJD 4–1 W 48.0
Oct 10 vs NSH 3–2 OT W 46.2
Oct 8 vs PHI 2–1 W 42.1
Oct 6 @ DET 3–5 L 45.9
Oct 5 @ BOS 4–1 W 59.9
Oct 3 @ TOR 3–2 W 42.3

Next 10 games

Date Opponent Win % Exp pts Opp str
Wed Oct 21 vs FLA 59 1.27 50.5
Thu Oct 22 vs SJS 64 1.36 45.1
Sat Oct 24 vs NYR 59 1.27 50.5
Tue Oct 27 @ VGK 45 1.03 56.2
Thu Oct 29 @ LAK 61 1.32 38.8
Sat Oct 31 @ SJS 55 1.21 45.1
Sun Nov 1 @ ANA 50 1.13 50.1
Wed Nov 4 @ BUF 47 1.07 53.9
Sat Nov 7 vs UTA 53 1.18 56.0
Tue Nov 10 vs WSH 54 1.19 55.3
Expected over these 1012.0

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice55.0
At home59.4
Away50.5
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against52.1
Points %, last 10 games66.7
Shot qualityRank
xG share, all situations50.014th
xG share, 5 on 547.921st
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)44.127th
xG for / against per game2.86 / 2.86
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)22 vs 25.7-3.7
Goals against vs xG against23 vs 25.7
Goals saved above expected+3.3

Skaters

# Player Pos GP G A Pts +/− SOG Hit Blk TOI
18 Tim Stützle C 9 5 7 12 +5 16 22 7 22:09
19 Drake Batherson R 9 4 2 6 +2 21 18 2 17:56
28 Claude Giroux R 9 1 5 6 +2 13 14 1 17:31
12 Shane Pinto C 9 1 5 6 -2 14 19 6 19:25
22 Michael Amadio R 9 2 2 4 -2 9 6 5 15:43
72 Thomas Chabot D 9 1 3 4 +5 19 5 24 25:19
34 Stephen Halliday C 9 2 1 3 -3 12 5 9 11:35
20 Fabian Zetterlund L 9 1 2 3 0 15 22 3 13:00
21 Nick Cousins C 9 1 1 2 -4 4 15 7 9:18
27 William Eklundfrom SJS L 4 1 1 2 +1 9 1 1 13:55
43 Tyler Kleven D 9 1 1 2 +1 9 19 25 21:10
26 Carter Yakemchuk D 9 1 1 2 -6 13 1 8 18:53
71 Ridly Greig C 7 1 1 2 +2 9 6 7 16:32
24 Dylan Cozens C 9 0 2 2 -1 17 23 5 18:01
37 Warren Foegele L 9 0 2 2 +4 8 13 3 11:44
2 Artem Zub D 2 0 1 1 +2 2 2 9 19:27
10 Jordan Spence D 9 0 1 1 -1 8 6 16 22:23
5 Cameron Crotty D 3 0 0 0 +1 0 2 1 11:09
85 Jake Sanderson D 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4:29
95 Andre Burakovskyfrom CHI L 5 0 0 0 -1 2 2 4 12:49
42 Hayden Hodgson R 2 0 0 0 -1 0 7 0 5:22
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D 7 0 0 0 +2 5 4 8 15:26
56 Jorian Donovan D 1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 9:14
0 Hoyt Stanley D 4 0 0 0 -1 1 2 2 10:54

Shooters by expected goals

ShooterShotsxGGG − xG
Drake Batherson302.94+1.1
Shane Pinto292.81-1.8
William Eklund142.51-1.5
Tim Stützle212.45+2.6
Michael Amadio162.02-0.0
Dylan Cozens272.00-2.0
Stephen Halliday171.82+0.2
Fabian Zetterlund201.41-0.4

Goalies

GoalieShotsxGAGAGSAx
Linus Ullmark25816.39+7.3
Samuel Ersson1008.012-4.0