New York Rangers

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 6–3–1, 13 pts in 10 games · GF 28, GA 22 (+6) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	50	51

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 91–102 points (middle half of seasons; median 96, 10th–90th percentile 86–106). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (61.8% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (59.9%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

NYR median 96

70 80 90 100 110 120

NYR's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfNYR's median

Last 10 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ CBJ	0–1 OT	OTL	47.5
Oct 15	@ NJD	1–7	L	48.0
Oct 13	vs TBL	4–1	W	60.3
Oct 11	vs VAN	6–2	W	32.5
Oct 9	@ WSH	1–3	L	55.3
Oct 6	vs NYI	5–2	W	50.8
Oct 4	vs UTA	4–2	W	56.0
Oct 2	@ DET	2–0	W	45.9
Oct 1	vs TBL	5–1	W	60.3
Sep 29	@ BOS	0–3	L	59.9

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Mon Oct 19	vs ANA	55	1.20	50.1
Thu Oct 22	@ TOR	54	1.19	42.3
Sat Oct 24	@ OTT	41	0.97	55.0
Mon Oct 26	vs LAK	65	1.39	38.8
Sun Nov 1	vs EDM	49	1.11	55.7
Tue Nov 3	vs STL	59	1.27	46.0
Thu Nov 5	vs PHI	62	1.34	42.1
Sat Nov 7	@ SEA	49	1.10	47.4
Mon Nov 9	@ EDM	41	0.96	55.7
Wed Nov 11	@ CGY	58	1.27	37.7
Expected over these 10			11.8

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 10 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	50.5
At home	55.0
Away	46.0
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	61.8
Points %, last 10 games	65.0
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	54.2	8th
xG share, 5 on 5	51.0	15th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	45.8	25th
xG for / against per game	3.32 / 2.81
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	28 vs 33.2	-5.2
Goals against vs xG against	22 vs 28.1
Goals saved above expected		+6.0

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
13	Alexis Lafrenière	L	10	7	4	11	+2	19	12	5	19:13
93	Mika Zibanejad	C	10	2	6	8	0	18	19	11	20:58
23	Adam Fox	D	10	0	8	8	+1	12	4	17	21:29
94	Gabe Perreault	R	10	3	3	6	-1	19	5	8	16:24
50	Will Cuylle	L	10	3	3	6	0	24	43	1	15:36
24	Tye Kartye	L	10	2	4	6	+1	12	25	4	15:17
10	J.T. Miller	C	10	1	5	6	+2	12	16	5	18:29
44	Vladislav Gavrikov	D	10	1	4	5	+3	14	10	24	20:59
17	Eeli Tolvanen	R	10	3	1	4	+6	13	16	11	13:00
16	Pavel Dorofeyevfrom VGK	R	10	2	2	4	-7	30	5	4	17:25
28	Oliver Bjorkstrandfrom TBL	R	10	2	1	3	-1	14	3	4	10:30
5	Sean Durzifrom UTA	D	10	1	2	3	-1	5	8	14	20:39
42	Noah Laba	C	10	0	2	2	+1	8	21	5	14:53
26	Marcus Petterssonfrom VAN	D	10	0	1	1	+3	7	13	16	20:26
4	Braden Schneider	D	10	0	1	1	+3	14	22	13	17:26
90	Joseph Velenofrom MTL	C	4	0	0	0	0	2	7	5	11:37
12	Alberts Smits	D	10	0	0	0	-1	5	8	6	14:58
22	Jonny Brodzinskifrom WSH	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Taylor Raddysh	R	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	7:23
49	Jaroslav Chmelar	R	7	0	0	0	-2	3	15	0	8:14
53	Cole Beaudoin	C	4	0	0	0	0	1	6	3	8:46
37	Justin Dowling	C	2	0	0	0	-1	0	1	1	7:03
73	Matt Rempe	C	2	0	0	0	0	1	11	0	6:46

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Alexis Lafrenière	32	4.7	7	+2.3
Pavel Dorofeyev	41	4.1	2	-2.1
Will Cuylle	37	4.0	3	-1.0
Mika Zibanejad	30	3.4	2	-1.4
Gabe Perreault	28	3.0	3	+0.0
J.T. Miller	20	2.7	1	-1.7
Eeli Tolvanen	18	2.5	3	+0.5
Oliver Bjorkstrand	21	1.8	2	+0.2

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Dylan Garand	188	11.3	9	+2.3
Igor Shesterkin	176	12.7	8	+4.7
Spencer Martin	28	2.0	3	-1.0