Detroit Red Wings
Playoff odds
From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.
| Proj | Finish, % of seasons | Odds, % | Win % needed | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PtsProj | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC | Out | Playoffs | Final | Cup | 50%Need | 75% | 95% |
| 93 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 14.7 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 51 | 53 | 54 |
Playoff race, Eastern Conference
| Record | Goals | Last 10 | Proj | Finish, % of seasons | Odds, % | Win % needed | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed# | Div | Team | GP | W | L | OT | Pts | RW | GF | GA | +/− | Results | W–L–OT | PtsProj | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | WC | Out | Playoffs | Final | Cup | 50% | 95% | Next |
| Atlantic | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | A |
 |
9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 7–2–0 | 98 | 20.9 | 17.1 | 14.6 | 15.2 | 32.1 | 67.9 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 48 | 51 | @ DAL Oct 20 | |
| 2 | A |
 |
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 6–2–0 | 97 | 18.6 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 15.6 | 36.2 | 63.8 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 48 | 51 | @ VGK Oct 20 | |
| 3 | A |
 |
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 24 | 23 | +1 | 6–3–0 | 96 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 15.9 | 42.3 | 57.7 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 49 | 52 | vs FLA Oct 21 | |
| Metropolitan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | M |
 |
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 7–2–1 | 98 | 25.2 | 18.6 | 15.1 | 9.9 | 31.2 | 68.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 48 | 50 | @ VAN Oct 20 | |
| 2 | M |
 |
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 6–3–1 | 96 | 18.0 | 16.4 | 14.9 | 10.6 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 49 | 51 | vs ANA Oct 19 | |
| 3 | M |
 |
8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 5–3–0 | 95 | 15.7 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 10.5 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 50 | 52 | vs LAK Oct 20 | |
| Wild Card | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | A |
 |
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 5–2–2 | 96 | 14.0 | 13.9 | 13.6 | 15.6 | 43.0 | 57.0 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 49 | 52 | @ OTT Oct 21 | |
| 2 | A |
 |
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 4–3–2 | 94 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 15.3 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 51 | 54 | vs PHI Oct 21 | |
| M |
 |
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 4–3–1 | 94 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 51 | 53 | vs ANA Oct 20 | ||
| A |
 |
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 4–3–1 | 94 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 52.5 | 47.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 51 | 54 | vs SJS Oct 20 | ||
| M |
 |
8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 4–4–0 | 93 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 10.4 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 51 | 54 | vs COL Oct 20 | ||
| A |
|
8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 3–3–2 | 93 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 14.7 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 51 | 54 | @ SEA Oct 20 | ||
| A |
 |
9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 3–4–2 | 92 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 13.9 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 52 | 55 | vs SJS Oct 19 | ||
| M |
 |
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 29 | 33 | -4 | 3–5–1 | 91 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 65.2 | 34.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 53 | 56 | @ UTA Oct 19 | ||
| M |
 |
7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 3–4–0 | 92 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 59.4 | 40.6 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 52 | 55 | vs TOR Oct 20 | ||
| M |
 |
10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 34 | -20 | 1–6–3 | 88 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 77.7 | 22.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 55 | 58 | vs COL Oct 19 | ||
Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.
Final points
Projected 88–99 points (middle half of seasons; median 93, 10th–90th percentile 83–104). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (47.3% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (42.9%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.
70
80
90
100
110
120
DET's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfDET's median
Last 8 games
| Date | Opponent | Score | Opp str | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | vs  |
4–3 OT | W | 45.1 |
| Oct 15 | vs |
2–1 | W | 42.1 |
| Oct 13 | vs |
4–5 OT | OTL | 48.0 |
| Oct 10 | @ |
0–1 OT | OTL | 53.3 |
| Oct 9 | vs  |
3–6 | L | 47.4 |
| Oct 6 | vs |
5–3 | W | 55.0 |
| Oct 4 | vs  |
2–3 | L | 46.9 |
| Oct 2 | vs |
0–2 | L | 50.5 |
Next 10 games
| Date | Opponent | Win % | Exp pts | Opp str |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Oct 20 | @ |
44 | 1.02 | 47.4 |
| Thu Oct 22 | @  |
59 | 1.28 | 32.5 |
| Sat Oct 24 | @  |
54 | 1.19 | 37.7 |
| Mon Oct 26 | @  |
37 | 0.89 | 55.7 |
| Thu Oct 29 | vs  |
62 | 1.34 | 37.5 |
| Sat Oct 31 | vs  |
54 | 1.20 | 46.0 |
| Mon Nov 2 | @ |
41 | 0.97 | 50.5 |
| Tue Nov 3 | @ |
32 | 0.81 | 60.3 |
| Thu Nov 5 | vs  |
44 | 1.03 | 56.2 |
| Sat Nov 7 | @  |
30 | 0.77 | 63.4 |
| Expected over these 10 | 10.5 | |||
Ratings and shot quality
The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.
| Ratings | ||
|---|---|---|
| Strength, neutral ice | 45.9 | |
| At home | 50.4 | |
| Away | 41.5 | |
| Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against | 41.0 | |
| Points %, last 10 games | 50.0 | |
| Shot quality | Rank | |
| xG share, all situations | 48.5 | 20th |
| xG share, 5 on 5 | 50.7 | 16th |
| Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi) | 51.9 | 14th |
| xG for / against per game | 3.17 / 3.37 | |
| Goals for vs xG for (finishing) | 19 vs 25.3 | -6.3 |
| Goals against vs xG against | 23 vs 26.9 | |
| Goals saved above expected | +3.4 | |
Skaters
| # | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | Pts | +/− | SOG | Hit | Blk | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | Alex DeBrincat | R | 8 | 5 | 4 | 9 | +7 | 30 | 7 | 6 | 20:08 |
| 28 | Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | R | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | +8 | 22 | 31 | 2 | 15:17 |
| 33 | Viktor Arvidssonfrom BOS | L | 8 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 19:08 |
| 58 | Emmitt Finnie | C | 8 | 3 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 17:00 |
| 72 | Justin Faulk | D | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 19:15 |
| 53 | Moritz Seider | D | 8 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +2 | 15 | 18 | 26 | 25:44 |
| 23 | Lucas Raymond | L | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 20:27 |
| 71 | Dylan Larkin | C | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 21:48 |
| 54 | William Wallinder | D | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 |
| 18 | Andrew Copp | C | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 19:30 |
| 42 | Anton Johansson | D | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 14:35 |
| 29 | Nate Danielson | C | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10:25 |
| 27 | Michael Rasmussen | C | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 9 | 18 | 8 | 17:02 |
| 8 | Ben Chiarot | D | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 19:17 |
| 44 | Axel Sandin-Pellikka | D | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 12:23 |
| 34 | Carter Mazur | L | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:23 |
| 22 | Mason Appleton | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9:50 |
| 78 | Jacob Brysonfrom WPG | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 37 | J.T. Compher | L | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14:39 |
| 92 | Marco Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10:50 |
| 55 | Keegan Kolesarfrom VGK | R | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 10:58 |
| 20 | Albert Johansson | D | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 15:52 |
| 24 | Andreas Englund | D | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 11:26 |
| 15 | Sheldon Dries | C | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 10:01 |
Shooters by expected goals
| Shooter | Shots | xG | G | G − xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 46 | 4.1 | 5 | +0.9 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 35 | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 |
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård | 34 | 3.3 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Lucas Raymond | 36 | 2.7 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Emmitt Finnie | 23 | 2.3 | 3 | +0.7 |
| Andrew Copp | 22 | 2.0 | 1 | -1.0 |
| Dylan Larkin | 19 | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Moritz Seider | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Goalies
| Goalie | Shots | xGA | GA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Gibson | 236 | 18.5 | 20 | -1.5 |
| Daniil Tarasov | 95 | 6.9 | 2 | +4.9 |