New York Islanders

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 4–3–1, 9 pts in 8 games · GF 24, GA 18 (+6) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%Need	75%	95%
94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	51	53

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

			Record						Goals			Last 10		Proj	Finish, % of seasons					Odds, %			Win % needed
Seed#	Div	Team	GP	W	L	OT	Pts	RW	GF	GA	+/−	Results	W–L–OT	PtsProj	1st	2nd	3rd	WC	Out	Playoffs	Final	Cup	50%	95%	Next
Atlantic
1	A	Boston BruinsBOS	9	7	2	0	14	6	34	19	+15		7–2–0	98	20.9	17.1	14.6	15.2	32.1	67.9	8.5	4.2	48	51	@ DAL Oct 20
2	A	Tampa Bay LightningTBL	8	6	2	0	12	5	25	21	+4		6–2–0	97	18.6	15.5	14.1	15.6	36.2	63.8	7.9	3.9	48	51	@ VGK Oct 20
3	A	Ottawa SenatorsOTT	9	6	3	0	12	4	24	23	+1		6–3–0	96	14.3	14.0	13.5	15.9	42.3	57.7	7.0	3.5	49	52	vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1	M	Carolina HurricanesCAR	10	7	2	1	15	6	36	24	+12		7–2–1	98	25.2	18.6	15.1	9.9	31.2	68.8	8.6	4.2	48	50	@ VAN Oct 20
2	M	New York RangersNYR	10	6	3	1	13	6	28	22	+6		6–3–1	96	18.0	16.4	14.9	10.6	40.1	59.9	7.5	3.8	49	51	vs ANA Oct 19
3	M	Washington CapitalsWSH	8	5	3	0	10	5	28	24	+4		5–3–0	95	15.7	15.3	14.7	10.5	43.8	56.2	7.0	3.5	50	52	vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1	A	Florida PanthersFLA	9	5	2	2	12	3	30	25	+5		5–2–2	96	14.0	13.9	13.6	15.6	43.0	57.0	7.2	3.6	49	52	@ OTT Oct 21
2	A	Buffalo SabresBUF	9	4	3	2	10	2	27	34	-7		4–3–2	94	9.1	10.8	11.8	15.3	53.0	47.0	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs PHI Oct 21

	M	New York IslandersNYI	8	4	3	1	9	4	24	18	+6		4–3–1	94	13.0	13.5	13.7	10.5	49.3	50.7	6.3	3.2	51	53	vs ANA Oct 20
	A	Montréal CanadiensMTL	8	4	3	1	9	1	27	30	-3		4–3–1	94	9.4	10.9	11.9	15.3	52.5	47.5	6.0	3.0	51	54	vs SJS Oct 20
	M	New Jersey DevilsNJD	8	4	4	0	8	2	25	27	-2		4–4–0	93	10.1	11.9	12.7	10.4	54.8	45.2	5.7	2.8	51	54	vs COL Oct 20
	A	Detroit Red WingsDET	8	3	3	2	8	2	20	24	-4		3–3–2	93	7.7	9.6	10.8	14.7	57.1	42.9	5.4	2.7	51	54	@ SEA Oct 20
	A	Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	9	3	4	2	8	2	29	32	-3		3–4–2	92	6.0	8.1	9.7	13.9	62.3	37.7	4.6	2.3	52	55	vs SJS Oct 19
	M	Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	9	3	5	1	7	1	29	33	-4		3–5–1	91	6.5	8.6	10.4	9.4	65.2	34.8	4.3	2.1	53	56	@ UTA Oct 19
	M	Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ	7	3	4	0	6	1	18	23	-5		3–4–0	92	8.4	10.7	11.6	10.0	59.4	40.6	5.2	2.6	52	55	vs TOR Oct 20
	M	Philadelphia FlyersPHI	10	1	6	3	5	1	14	34	-20		1–6–3	88	3.0	5.1	7.0	7.2	77.7	22.3	2.8	1.5	55	58	vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 89–100 points (middle half of seasons; median 94, 10th–90th percentile 84–105). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (52.9% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (50.7%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

NYI median 94

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

NYI's final pointsCutlineCutline, middle halfNYI's median

Last 8 games

Date	Opponent	Score		Opp str
Oct 17	@ TOR	4–1	W	42.3
Oct 15	@ OTT	1–2 OT	OTL	55.0
Oct 13	vs VAN	3–2	W	32.5
Oct 10	vs TBL	3–5	L	60.3
Oct 8	vs CHI	4–1	W	37.5
Oct 6	@ NYR	2–5	L	50.5
Oct 3	vs NJD	6–0	W	48.0
Sep 30	@ TOR	1–2	L	42.3

Next 10 games

Date	Opponent	Win %	Exp pts	Opp str
Tue Oct 20	vs ANA	55	1.21	50.1
Thu Oct 22	vs LAK	65	1.39	38.8
Sun Oct 25	@ DAL	39	0.93	57.6
Tue Oct 27	@ NSH	50	1.12	46.2
Thu Oct 29	@ MIN	39	0.93	57.9
Sat Oct 31	vs EDM	50	1.11	55.7
Thu Nov 5	vs CAR	44	1.01	61.7
Sat Nov 7	vs NJD	57	1.24	48.0
Mon Nov 9	@ SJS	51	1.14	45.1
Thu Nov 12	@ LAK	57	1.25	38.8
Expected over these 10			11.4

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 8 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice	50.8
At home	55.3
Away	46.3
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against	64.0
Points %, last 10 games	56.2
Shot quality		Rank
xG share, all situations	44.1	28th
xG share, 5 on 5	49.1	19th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)	50.9	16th
xG for / against per game	2.62 / 3.32
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)	24 vs 21.0	+3.0
Goals against vs xG against	17 vs 26.6
Goals saved above expected		+10.3

Skaters

#	Player	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	+/−	SOG	Hit	Blk	TOI
14	Bo Horvat	C	8	5	4	9	+4	26	19	3	20:33
48	Matthew Schaefer	D	8	0	7	7	+2	31	4	6	25:48
63	Matias Maccellifrom TOR	L	8	2	4	6	+3	13	1	1	14:28
10	Brayden Schenn	C	8	2	3	5	-2	16	18	3	16:23
92	Simon Holmstrom	R	8	3	1	4	+2	9	2	3	16:25
44	Jean-Gabriel Pageau	C	8	1	3	4	0	9	22	10	15:25
8	Logan Stanley	D	8	0	4	4	+7	5	21	14	20:50
21	Kyle Palmieri	C	8	2	1	3	+1	14	3	5	15:52
51	Emil Heineman	L	8	2	0	2	+2	9	23	2	15:34
11	Anthony Duclair	L	8	2	0	2	-1	9	2	2	12:30
64	Calum Ritchie	C	8	1	1	2	0	7	2	5	12:10
53	Casey Cizikas	C	8	1	1	2	+4	7	12	2	12:32
77	Tony DeAngelo	D	8	1	1	2	-2	11	2	7	16:19
81	Ondrej Palat	L	8	1	1	2	+2	9	17	7	12:51
38	Victor Eklund	R	8	1	1	2	+1	8	17	3	13:24
3	Adam Pelech	D	8	0	2	2	+2	8	7	10	20:29
4	Matthew Kesselfrom STL	D	3	0	1	1	+1	2	2	1	13:33
24	Scott Mayfield	D	2	0	0	0	+1	1	5	1	13:38
6	Ryan Pulock	D	8	0	0	0	+1	2	8	11	18:56
28	Alexander Romanov	D	3	0	0	0	+2	3	5	7	16:34

Shooters by expected goals

Shooter	Shots	xG	G	G − xG
Bo Horvat	36	3.8	5	+1.2
Brayden Schenn	20	2.4	2	-0.4
Matthew Schaefer	44	1.9	0	-1.9
Emil Heineman	16	1.5	2	+0.5
Victor Eklund	17	1.4	1	-0.4
Casey Cizikas	9	1.4	1	-0.4
Ondrej Palat	13	1.3	1	-0.3
Simon Holmstrom	15	1.3	3	+1.7

Goalies

Goalie	Shots	xGA	GA	GSAx
Ilya Sorokin	242	17.4	10	+7.4
Semyon Varlamov	71	7.0	4	+3.0