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Pittsburgh Penguins

Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference · 3–5–1, 7 pts in 9 games · GF 29, GA 33 (-4) · Last 10

Playoff odds

Odds: by team strength · every game 50/50. Every remaining game is a coin flip: no team strength and no home ice, only the standings and the schedule. Games still go to overtime as often as they do across the league.

From 100,000 simulated seasons, updated Mon, Oct 19 at 8:30 AM. Finish columns are the share of seasons ending in each place; Win % needed is over the remaining games, for a 50%, 75% or 95% playoff chance.

Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50%Need 75% 95%
91 6.5 8.6 10.4 9.4 65.2 34.8 4.3 2.1 53 54 56

Playoff race, Eastern Conference

Record Goals Last 10 Proj Finish, % of seasons Odds, % Win % needed
Seed# Div Team GP W L OT Pts RW GF GA +/− Results W–L–OT PtsProj 1st 2nd 3rd WC Out Playoffs Final Cup 50% 95% Next
Atlantic
1 A Boston BruinsBOS 9 7 2 0 14 6 34 19 +15 7–2–0 98 20.9 17.1 14.6 15.2 32.1 67.9 8.5 4.2 48 51 @ DAL Oct 20
2 A Tampa Bay LightningTBL 8 6 2 0 12 5 25 21 +4 6–2–0 97 18.6 15.5 14.1 15.6 36.2 63.8 7.9 3.9 48 51 @ VGK Oct 20
3 A Ottawa SenatorsOTT 9 6 3 0 12 4 24 23 +1 6–3–0 96 14.3 14.0 13.5 15.9 42.3 57.7 7.0 3.5 49 52 vs FLA Oct 21
Metropolitan
1 M Carolina HurricanesCAR 10 7 2 1 15 6 36 24 +12 7–2–1 98 25.2 18.6 15.1 9.9 31.2 68.8 8.6 4.2 48 50 @ VAN Oct 20
2 M New York RangersNYR 10 6 3 1 13 6 28 22 +6 6–3–1 96 18.0 16.4 14.9 10.6 40.1 59.9 7.5 3.8 49 51 vs ANA Oct 19
3 M Washington CapitalsWSH 8 5 3 0 10 5 28 24 +4 5–3–0 95 15.7 15.3 14.7 10.5 43.8 56.2 7.0 3.5 50 52 vs LAK Oct 20
Wild Card
1 A Florida PanthersFLA 9 5 2 2 12 3 30 25 +5 5–2–2 96 14.0 13.9 13.6 15.6 43.0 57.0 7.2 3.6 49 52 @ OTT Oct 21
2 A Buffalo SabresBUF 9 4 3 2 10 2 27 34 -7 4–3–2 94 9.1 10.8 11.8 15.3 53.0 47.0 6.0 3.0 51 54 vs PHI Oct 21
M New York IslandersNYI 8 4 3 1 9 4 24 18 +6 4–3–1 94 13.0 13.5 13.7 10.5 49.3 50.7 6.3 3.2 51 53 vs ANA Oct 20
A Montréal CanadiensMTL 8 4 3 1 9 1 27 30 -3 4–3–1 94 9.4 10.9 11.9 15.3 52.5 47.5 6.0 3.0 51 54 vs SJS Oct 20
M New Jersey DevilsNJD 8 4 4 0 8 2 25 27 -2 4–4–0 93 10.1 11.9 12.7 10.4 54.8 45.2 5.7 2.8 51 54 vs COL Oct 20
A Detroit Red WingsDET 8 3 3 2 8 2 20 24 -4 3–3–2 93 7.7 9.6 10.8 14.7 57.1 42.9 5.4 2.7 51 54 @ SEA Oct 20
A Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 9 3 4 2 8 2 29 32 -3 3–4–2 92 6.0 8.1 9.7 13.9 62.3 37.7 4.6 2.3 52 55 vs SJS Oct 19
M Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 9 3 5 1 7 1 29 33 -4 3–5–1 91 6.5 8.6 10.4 9.4 65.2 34.8 4.3 2.1 53 56 @ UTA Oct 19
M Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 7 3 4 0 6 1 18 23 -5 3–4–0 92 8.4 10.7 11.6 10.0 59.4 40.6 5.2 2.6 52 55 vs TOR Oct 20
M Philadelphia FlyersPHI 10 1 6 3 5 1 14 34 -20 1–6–3 88 3.0 5.1 7.0 7.2 77.7 22.3 2.8 1.5 55 58 vs COL Oct 19

Rows follow the playoff format: each division's top three, then the wild-card race, with the red line at the cutoff. The same columns as the standings; hover a heading for its definition.

Final points

Projected 86–97 points (middle half of seasons; median 91, 10th–90th percentile 81–102). The cutline, the fewest points among the conference's playoff teams, is usually 93–96 (median 95, 92–98). Reaching that season's cutline (38.1% of seasons) isn't quite making the playoffs (34.8%): tiebreakers and the division format decide the edge cases.

Last 9 games

Date Opponent Score Opp str
Oct 17 @ VGK 2–6 L 56.2
Oct 16 @ COL 2–5 L 63.4
Oct 13 @ CHI 3–5 L 37.5
Oct 10 vs DAL 2–1 OT W 57.6
Oct 9 @ CBJ 2–3 OT OTL 47.5
Oct 7 @ WSH 3–5 L 55.3
Oct 5 vs WPG 2–3 L 46.9
Oct 3 vs MTL 6–5 OT W 53.3
Sep 30 @ PHI 7–0 W 42.1

Next 10 games

Date Opponent Win % Exp pts Opp str
Mon Oct 19 @ UTA 39 0.92 56.0
Thu Oct 22 vs FLA 52 1.16 50.5
Sat Oct 24 vs NSH 57 1.24 46.2
Thu Oct 29 vs UTA 47 1.07 56.0
Sat Oct 31 @ MTL 41 0.97 53.3
Tue Nov 3 vs VGK 47 1.07 56.2
Thu Nov 5 vs BOS 43 1.00 59.9
Sat Nov 7 @ LAK 55 1.21 38.8
Sun Nov 8 @ ANA 44 1.02 50.1
Wed Nov 11 @ SJS 49 1.10 45.1
Expected over these 1010.8

Ratings and shot quality

The simulation's ratings: each team's chance of beating a league-average team. Expected goals (xG) rate each unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in. 9 games this regular season; ranks out of 32.

Ratings
Strength, neutral ice48.5
At home53.0
Away44.0
Pythagorean win %, from goals for and against43.6
Points %, last 10 games38.9
Shot qualityRank
xG share, all situations48.819th
xG share, 5 on 554.38th
Shot attempt share, 5 on 5 (Corsi)52.013th
xG for / against per game3.42 / 3.58
Goals for vs xG for (finishing)28 vs 30.8-2.8
Goals against vs xG against32 vs 32.2
Goals saved above expected-2.2

Skaters

# Player Pos GP G A Pts +/− SOG Hit Blk TOI
65 Erik Karlsson D 9 0 9 9 -3 15 1 4 22:37
71 Evgeni Malkin C 9 5 2 7 -1 20 2 2 17:35
18 Tommy Novak C 9 3 4 7 +1 16 2 8 15:06
49 Samuel Girard D 9 1 6 7 -4 12 5 10 18:43
87 Sidney Crosby C 9 3 3 6 -5 21 7 3 19:31
14 Nick Robertsonfrom TOR L 9 4 0 4 +6 17 1 5 12:13
81 Ben Kindel C 8 2 2 4 -6 21 3 2 17:08
72 Declan Carlilefrom TBL D 9 2 2 4 -2 13 8 19 19:08
41 Ville Koivunen R 7 1 3 4 +2 8 0 2 13:31
6 Kaedan Korczakfrom VGK D 9 0 4 4 -2 9 6 15 18:22
17 Bryan Rust R 6 3 0 3 -5 9 7 5 18:36
22 Hendrix Lapierrefrom WSH C 6 1 2 3 -2 2 6 1 11:59
19 Filip Hallanderto EDM C 2 1 2 3 +4 3 1 1 10:17
46 Blake Lizotte C 9 0 3 3 -1 10 7 9 13:05
58 Kris Letang D 9 0 3 3 0 18 11 8 19:51
59 Egor Chinakhov R 7 1 1 2 -1 13 3 3 15:53
19 Connor Dewar C 9 1 1 2 +1 13 12 4 13:09
67 Rickard Rakell R 9 0 2 2 -6 21 10 7 19:43
62 Andrei Kuzmenkofrom LAK L 5 0 0 0 -3 6 5 0 12:07
3 Ryan Johnsonfrom BUF D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
57 Trevor van Riemsdykfrom WSH D 5 0 0 0 -1 2 2 10 18:48
24 Spencer Stastneyfrom EDM D 4 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 16:23
25 Elmer Soderblom L 4 0 0 0 -1 1 8 3 11:01

Shooters by expected goals

ShooterShotsxGGG − xG
Ben Kindel283.22-1.2
Rickard Rakell363.00-3.0
Sidney Crosby342.83+0.2
Evgeni Malkin262.85+2.2
Tommy Novak222.53+0.5
Egor Chinakhov252.01-1.0
Connor Dewar191.81-0.8
Nick Robertson241.74+2.3

Goalies

GoalieShotsxGAGAGSAx
Arturs Silovs20715.716-0.3
Sergei Murashov16312.114-1.9